Scorecard
Each plan is committed to the repository before the data it grades, with the commit time stated inside it. The close-of-day note grades every line against the thresholds the plan set, and nothing is regraded afterwards. This page is the running total. It includes the sessions where no plan was committed, because leaving those out would make the record look better than it is.
Of the 14 lines that triggered, 5 graded as hits (36 percent). 52 percent of all lines were no-calls: the data landed inside a band where the plan said nothing. A hit rate on a sample this small is not a track record, and a plan line is not a trade. Most retail traders lose money.
Committed Mon Nov 2, 2026, about 9:10 PM ET. Covers Tue Nov 3 session (election day, context only). One leg: September JOLTS job openings. Soft at 6,780 thousand or below (5Y below 4.693 percent, 10Y below 4.894 percent); firm at 7,380 or above (both above); 6,781 to 7,379 no call. Factory orders and the 6-week bill recorded, not graded..
Pending: not yet graded.
Committed Thu Oct 29, 2026, about 9:25 PM ET. Covers Fri Oct 30 session: Q3 employment cost index, one leg, 5Y and 10Y graded against the Thursday close.
| Line | Result | What happened |
|---|---|---|
| ECI leg: 5Y yield | No call | ECI rose 0.8 percent, inside the 0.7 to 1.1 no-call band; ^FVX closed 4.721 percent, down 8.0 bp, almost all of it before the release. |
| ECI leg: 10Y yield | No call | ECI 0.8 percent, no call; ^TNX closed 4.929 percent, down 6.0 bp from the 4.989 reference. |
Committed Mon Oct 26, 2026, about 8:45 PM ET. Covers Tue Oct 27 session: Leg A Conference Board consumer confidence (10Y), Leg B 5-year note bid-to-cover (5Y), graded against the Monday close.
| Line | Result | What happened |
|---|---|---|
| Leg A strong: 10Y yield above 4.986% | Hit | Confidence printed 91.7, past the 88.9 strong line; ^TNX closed 4.993 percent, up 0.7 bp, which the note calls a hit that is real by the plan's terms and small enough to be noise. |
| Leg B: 5Y yield | No call | The 5-year note drew a 2.33 bid-to-cover, inside the 2.21 to 2.37 no-call range; ^FVX closed 4.840 percent. |
Committed Fri Oct 23, 2026, about 6:15 AM ET. Covers Fri Oct 23 session: S&P Global flash US composite PMI, one leg, 5Y and 10Y graded against the Thursday close.
| Line | Result | What happened |
|---|---|---|
| PMI leg: 5Y yield | No call | Flash composite printed 57.6, inside the 55.5 to 61.3 no-call band; ^FVX closed 4.805 percent, up from 4.768. |
| PMI leg: 10Y yield | No call | Composite 57.6, no call; ^TNX closed 4.988 percent, up 3.5 bp, with the note crediting oil rather than the PMI. |
Committed Thu Oct 22, 2026, about 11:45 AM ET, after the 8:30 AM claims and 10:30 AM gas storage releases and before the 1:00 PM TIPS auction. Covers Thu Oct 22 session: 5-year TIPS new issue bid-to-cover, one leg, 5Y nominal graded against the writing-time level of 4.834 percent (DXY carried no call in any row).
| Line | Result | What happened |
|---|---|---|
| TIPS leg: 5Y nominal yield | No call | The 5-year TIPS drew a 2.41 bid-to-cover, inside the 2.28 to 2.62 no-call range; ^FVX closed 4.768 percent, 6.6 bp below the writing-time level. |
Committed Tue Oct 20, 2026, about 10:15 PM ET. Covers Wed Oct 21 session: Leg A 20-year reopening bid-to-cover (30Y and 10Y), Leg B Brent regime (T5YIE and gold), graded against the Tuesday close.
Graded in Wed: the 20-year drew 2.73 cover, nothing in the plan triggered, and natural gas fell to 2.77.
| Line | Result | What happened |
|---|---|---|
| Leg A: 30Y yield | No call | The 20-year drew a 2.73 bid-to-cover, inside the 2.53 to 2.75 no-call range and 0.03 short of the strong line; ^TYX closed 5.439 percent. |
| Leg A: 10Y yield | No call | Cover 2.73, no call; ^TNX closed 5.146 percent, up 2.9 bp from the 5.117 reference. |
| Leg B: 5Y breakeven (T5YIE) | No call | Brent finished the 4:00 PM bar at 109.73, up 0.56 percent and inside the no-call band; FRED T5YIE printed 2.40. |
| Leg B: gold | No call | Brent 109.73, no call; gold finished the 4:00 PM bar at 4,159.5. |
Committed Thu Oct 15, 2026, about 10:25 PM ET. Covers Fri Oct 16 session: Leg A September import prices (10Y and DXY), Leg B equity risk regime on the S&P 500 close (10Y and gold), graded against the Thursday close.
| Line | Result | What happened |
|---|---|---|
| Leg A: 10Y yield | No call | Import prices rose 1.1 percent, inside the 0.5 to 1.3 no-call band. |
| Leg A: DXY | No call | Import prices 1.1 percent, no call; DXY finished the 4:00 PM bar at 101.779 against the 101.982 reference, not graded. |
| Leg B risk-off: 10Y closes below 5.089% | Miss | The S&P 500 fell 1.09 percent, triggering risk-off; ^TNX closed 5.098 percent, up 0.9 bp, with Treasury's own curve showing minus 1 bp but the grade using the plan's measure. |
| Leg B risk-off: gold above 4,192.5 | Miss | Risk-off triggered; gold finished the 4:00 PM bar at 4,181.1, down 11.4, after touching about 4,218 shortly after 10:00 AM. |
Committed Tue Oct 13, 2026, about 8:00 PM ET. Covers Wed Oct 14 session: September core CPI, one leg, 10Y, DXY, gold and USD/JPY graded against the Tuesday reference levels.
| Line | Result | What happened |
|---|---|---|
| Hot: 10Y yield up 3 bp or more | Miss | Core CPI printed 0.3 percent, hot; the 10-year jumped about 11 bp in the first half hour and closed 5.190 percent, down 2.7 bp from 5.217. |
| Hot: DXY up | Hit | Core CPI 0.3 percent, hot; DXY finished the 4:00 PM bar at 102.521, up 0.32 from 102.198. |
| Hot: gold down | Hit | Core CPI 0.3 percent, hot; gold finished at 4,127.3, down 56.6 from 4,183.9. |
| Hot: USD/JPY up | Miss | Core CPI 0.3 percent, hot; USD/JPY finished at 158.31 against 158.32, down 0.01, which the note calls a coin toss scored honestly. |
Committed Thu Oct 8, 2026, about 4:50 AM ET. Covers Thu Oct 8 session: Leg A initial jobless claims (10Y, DXY, gold, USD/JPY), Leg B 30-year reopening (30Y), graded against the Wednesday close.
Graded in Thu-Fri: claims at 197,000, a middling 30-year auction, and a plan with nothing to grade.
| Line | Result | What happened |
|---|---|---|
| Leg A: 10Y yield | No call | Initial claims printed 197,000, inside the 191,000 to 214,000 no-call band; ^TNX closed 5.231 percent, down 4.6 bp. |
| Leg A: DXY | No call | Claims 197,000, no call; DXY closed 102.14, down 0.11 from 102.25, not graded. |
| Leg A: gold | No call | Claims 197,000, no call; gold finished the 4:00 PM bar at about 4,158, up about 21 from about 4,137, not graded. |
| Leg A: USD/JPY | No call | Claims 197,000, no call; USD/JPY finished the 4:00 PM bar at 157.86, down 0.19 from 158.05, not graded. |
| Leg B: 30Y yield | No call | The 30-year reopening drew a 2.54 bid-to-cover and a 72.3 percent indirect share, neither weak nor strong; ^TYX closed 5.606 percent, below the 5.661 reference, which the note records without crediting. |
Committed Tue Oct 6, 2026, about 9:10 PM ET. Covers Wed Oct 7 session: Leg A FOMC minutes classified by quantifier words (10Y, DXY, gold, USD/JPY), Leg B 10-year reopening (10Y), conflict rule voids the 10Y if the legs oppose, graded against the Tuesday close.
Graded in Wed: hawkish minutes, a strong 10-year auction, and yields that went nowhere. Plan graded.
| Line | Result | What happened |
|---|---|---|
| Leg A hawkish: 10Y yield up 4 bp or more | Void | Minutes were hawkish and the auction strong, pointing the 10-year opposite ways, so the conflict rule voided both 10Y lines; ^TNX closed 5.277 percent, up 0.8 bp, which the note says would have missed on either leg alone. |
| Leg A hawkish: DXY up | Hit | Most participants saw further increases as likely appropriate; DXY closed 102.25, up 0.42 from 101.83, with almost all of the move made before the 2:00 PM release. |
| Leg A hawkish: gold down | Hit | Hawkish minutes; gold finished at about 4,137, down about 56 from about 4,193, all of it before the release. |
| Leg A hawkish: USD/JPY up | Miss | Hawkish minutes; USD/JPY finished at 158.05 against 158.07, down 0.02, a miss by two pips. |
| Leg B strong: 10Y at or below 5.269% | Void | The 10-year reopening drew a 2.77 bid-to-cover and 80.3 percent indirects, strong by the plan; ^TNX closed 5.277 percent, above the line, but the conflict rule voided it. |
Committed Fri Oct 2, 2026, before the 8:30 AM ET release, with pre-release levels taken at about 5:00 AM ET (the grading note records the commit at 5:14 AM ET). Covers Fri Oct 2 session: September payrolls, one leg, 10Y, DXY, gold and USD/JPY graded at the 4:00 PM ET close against pre-release levels.
Graded in Friday recap: NFP 29k, yields rose anyway. Our plan failed on all four.
| Line | Result | What happened |
|---|---|---|
| Weak: 10Y yield down 6 bp or more | Miss | Payrolls printed plus 29,000, triggering the weak row; ^TNX closed 5.277 percent, up about 4 bp from 5.237, and the note labels every line a fail, recorded here as a miss. |
| Weak: DXY down | Miss | Weak row triggered; DXY closed 101.93, flat against the 101.93 reference, graded a fail. |
| Weak: gold up | Miss | Weak row triggered; gold closed at about 4,162 to 4,177 against 4,213, graded a fail. |
| Weak: USD/JPY down | Miss | Weak row triggered; USD/JPY closed at about 157.8 against 157.56, graded a fail. |
Written up after the fact and marked ungraded. They count against the discipline, not for it.
How grading works is in Methodology. The plan files themselves are kept in the repository under editorial/plans and are quoted, with their commit times, in each graded note.