Wed: the Fed held at 3.75 to 4 percent on a 10-2 vote, Cook and Hammack wanted a hike, and the 10-year rose 5 basis points. No plan, no grade.
Written Friday October 30 at about 5:50 AM ET, covering Wednesday October 28; no plan was committed for the FOMC decision, although the Tuesday plan said one would be. The statement (2:00 PM ET) held the target range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent; Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissented for a quarter-point hike. Growth was upgraded from "solid" to "strong." The 10-year closed at 5.045 percent, up 5.2 basis points (Yahoo); the 2-year fell 3 basis points on Treasury's curve.
Written Friday October 30, 2026, at about 5:50 AM ET, covering Wednesday October 28. No plan was committed for Wednesday. The Tuesday plan said a pre-registered FOMC map would follow on Tuesday evening; it was never written. So nothing in this note is graded, and nothing here should be read as a call made before the decision. Committed before Friday's 8:30 AM ET data. The Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent at 2:00 PM ET on a 10-2 vote. Both dissenters, Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack, wanted a quarter-point hike. The 10-year yield closed 5.2 basis points higher at 5.045 percent, while the 2-year fell on Treasury's curve.
This continues the Tuesday note, where a jump in consumer confidence gave the plan one thin hit on the day the meeting opened.
What the statement said
- Decision. "The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-3/4 to 4 percent." Interest on reserve balances held at 3.90 percent, effective October 29 (sources: FOMC statement, implementation note).
- Vote: 10-2. "Voting against the monetary policy action were Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting." The September 16 hike was 12-0 (September statement). What a split like this does and does not tell you is in Fed committee splits.
- Growth language upgraded. September: "Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace." October: "at a strong pace." The sentences on spending, productivity, investment and jobs are unchanged word for word.
- Inflation guidance rewritten. September: "Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal." October: "The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the Committee's 2 percent goal." "Inflation remains elevated" and "The Committee will deliver price stability" are kept.
- No projections. This was not a Summary of Economic Projections meeting. Minutes are due Wednesday November 18 at 2:00 PM ET; the next decision is Wednesday December 9 at 2:00 PM ET, after a December 8-9 meeting (Federal Reserve calendar).
- Press conference (2:30 PM ET). We have not read a transcript and do not characterise what was said.
The tape
| Market | Tue Oct 27 | Wed Oct 28 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13-week bill (^IRX, close) | 4.040% | 3.995% | -4.5 bp |
| 5Y yield (close) | 4.840% | 4.871% | +3.1 bp |
| 10Y yield (close) | 4.993% | 5.045% | +5.2 bp |
| 30Y yield (close) | 5.305% | 5.361% | +5.6 bp |
| DXY (4 PM ET) | 102.298 | 102.120 | -0.17% |
| Gold (GC=F, 4 PM ET) | 4,074.9 | 4,089.1 | +14.2 (+0.35%) |
| USD/JPY (4 PM ET) | 157.91 | 157.92 | +0.01% |
| EUR/USD (4 PM ET) | 1.1140 | 1.1158 | +0.16% |
| Brent, December (BZZ26, 4 PM ET) | 114.29 | 114.23 | -0.05% |
| Brent, January (BZF27, 4 PM ET) | 109.85 | 110.51 | +0.60% |
| S&P 500 (close) | 7,722.60 | 7,743.98 | +0.28% |
Sources: Yahoo Finance query1, same conventions as the Tuesday table: yields and the S&P 500 are daily closes, the rest are 4:00 PM ET prints.
The curve steepened
Treasury's closing curve shows the 2-year at 4.67 percent, down 3 basis points, the 5-year at 4.85, up 3, the 10-year at 5.05, up 6, and the 30-year at 5.37, up 7 (Treasury nominal curve). The 2s10s spread widened by about 9 basis points in a day. On the real side, the 10-year TIPS yield rose 3 basis points to 2.67 and the 5-year fell 1 to 2.36 (Treasury real curve). FRED's breakevens rose: T5YIE 2.49 from 2.45, T10YIE 2.38 from 2.35 (FRED, via our proxy).
Read together: a hold, with two votes for a hike and softer guidance on what comes next, came with lower front-end yields and higher long-end yields and inflation compensation. One reading is that the market took the hold as less tightening than it had been ready for, and asked for more compensation further out. That is a reading, not a finding; we did not test it, and with no plan there is nothing to grade it against.
Around 2:00 PM
Yahoo's 30-minute bars (not graded): ^TNX went from 5.020 percent at the 1:50 PM bar open to 5.045 at its close, then to 5.016 at the close of the 2:20 PM bar, which spans the press conference's start, and back to 5.045 by the close. ^FVX moved from 4.871 to 4.896, then to 4.837, then back to 4.871. DXY went from 102.317 at the 2:00 PM bar open to 102.356 at its close and to 102.194 by 3:00 PM. Up on the statement, down into the press conference, back up into the close. We do not know what drove each swing. How to read a decision-day tape is in the FOMC-day tape.
Also Wednesday
- 2-year floating-rate note. $30 billion (CUSIP 91282CRS2) at a high discount margin of 0.038 percent, bid-to-cover 3.05; indirect bidders took 71.4 percent of competitive awards (TreasuryDirect).
What we do not know
- What was said at the press conference. Not read.
- What futures price for December. We read no CME or other named source after the decision and quote no probability.
- How the statement compares with expectations. We have no survey of forecasts and make no claim about surprise.
What to read alongside
Nothing on this site is investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Most retail traders lose money. This note makes no forward call and grades nothing.