Live, today's note FX, macro, ~6 min read

Gold cracked $142. Quarter-end de-risk. Eyes on PCE Tuesday.

Gold extended another $47 (+1.01%) to a fresh cycle high $4,651. Phase 3 of the multi-year-high framework is now roughly one session from the $4,700 interim target. DXY at 101.82 tested but did not reclaim the 99 handle. 10Y softened 3.4bp to 4.7011 (first pullback after five sessions of term-premium extension). The BEA moved Q2 GDP second and July Core PCE together to Wednesday Aug 26 (8:30 AM ET); Chair Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote lands Friday Aug 28 at 10:00 AM ET. Consensus PCE 2.90% YoY: a print in the 2.85-2.95% band lets the pre-symposium regime hold; above 3.00% flips the pre-Warsh setup.

28 September 2026 · By Igor Komolov

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DXY, daily close

05 Oct to 03 Nov

101.82

-0.14% wk

Source: ICE DXY, daily close. Annotation by TradingFuse.

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Rates 2 Nov · I.K. · 5 min

Fri: the employment cost index rose 0.8 percent, inside the no-call band, and the 5-year fell 8 basis points, almost all of it before the release.

Written Monday November 2, 2026, at about 9:15 PM ET, covering Friday October 30, graded against the Oct 30 plan. Q3 civilian compensation rose 0.8 percent (BLS), between the 0.6 and 1.2 percent lines, so the plan made no call. The 5-year closed at 4.721 percent (Thursday 4.801) and the 10-year at 4.929 (Thursday 4.989), but the 5-year was already at 4.716 at the 8:20 AM bar open (Yahoo). Chicago PMI, the BoJ decision and CFTC were recorded, not graded.

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Rates 2 Nov · I.K. · 4 min

Mon: ISM manufacturing rose to 55.5, January Brent fell 7.6 percent, and the 10-year slipped 3.5 basis points. No plan, no grade.

Written Monday November 2, 2026, at about 9:15 PM ET, covering Monday November 2; no plan was committed for Monday, so nothing is graded. The ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 55.5 in October, up from 54.5; prices 75.2, production 59.0 (ISM via PR Newswire). January Brent settled at 104.77, down from 113.43, on reports that Iran signalled openness to talks. The 5-year closed at 4.693 percent and the 10-year at 4.894 (Yahoo).

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Rates 30 Oct · I.K. · 6 min

Tue: confidence jumped to 91.7, the plan scored one thin hit, and the 5-year auction's 2.33 cover triggered nothing.

Written Friday October 30 at about 5:50 AM ET, covering Tuesday October 27; the plan was committed Monday evening before any Tuesday release. The Conference Board index rose to 91.7 (September revised to 84.2 from 81.9), above the 88.9 line: the 10-year closed at 4.993 percent, above 4.986, a hit by 0.7 basis point. The 5-year drew 2.33 cover (TreasuryDirect), inside the no-call band. One of the Monday note's two statements was wrong; the other was never tested.

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Rates 30 Oct · I.K. · 5 min

Wed: the Fed held at 3.75 to 4 percent on a 10-2 vote, Cook and Hammack wanted a hike, and the 10-year rose 5 basis points. No plan, no grade.

Written Friday October 30 at about 5:50 AM ET, covering Wednesday October 28; no plan was committed for the FOMC decision, although the Tuesday plan said one would be. The statement (2:00 PM ET) held the target range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent; Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissented for a quarter-point hike. Growth was upgraded from "solid" to "strong." The 10-year closed at 5.045 percent, up 5.2 basis points (Yahoo); the 2-year fell 3 basis points on Treasury's curve.

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Rates 30 Oct · I.K. · 5 min

Thu: GDP grew 3.4 percent, core PCE rose 0.3 percent on the month, and the 5-year fell 7 basis points. No plan, no grade.

Written Friday October 30 at about 5:50 AM ET, covering Thursday October 29; no plan was committed for Thursday, so nothing is graded. Advance Q3 GDP rose at a 3.4 percent annual rate (Q2 2.2); September PCE prices rose 0.5 percent on the month and 3.6 percent on the year, core 0.3 and 3.1 (BEA). The 7-year cleared at 4.894 percent with 2.46 cover (TreasuryDirect). The 5-year closed 7.0 basis points lower at 4.801 percent and the 10-year 5.6 lower at 4.989 (Yahoo).

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Rates 26 Oct · I.K. · 6 min

Fri: the flash composite PMI fell to 57.6, nothing triggered, and Brent's jump to $117 lifted yields.

Written Monday October 26, covering Friday October 23; the plan was committed Friday before the 9:45 AM ET releases. The S&P Global flash composite was 57.6 against 58.4 (Kitco, Seoul Economic Daily), inside the no-call band. Grade: nothing triggered. December Brent rose 3.5 percent to $117.12 and the 10-year 3.5 basis points to 4.988 percent, mostly breakevens (FRED). Michigan final 48.0 (UMich). The DFII10 2.84 statement was falsified; the T10YIE statement survived, not cleanly met.

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