Research
Notes on what the market is doing, and why.
Short, signed pieces on FX, rates, and macro. Each note is reviewed by an editor before it publishes. We do not issue trade recommendations. How we work →
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A plain-English guide to event windows: how to tell what a catalyst actually moved.
Written after the Wednesday October 7 close, using that session as the live example. Our plan scored hits on the dollar and gold after hawkish FOMC minutes, but from 2:00 PM to the close DXY moved 0.04 and gold about $0.30; the moves came earlier. Close-to-close tells you what happened, not why. An event window measures a fixed slice around a release, the method academic studies of Fed announcements use. How to choose the window, what Wednesday looks like measured three ways, what windows cannot see (slow reactions, priced-in news, leaks), and how we will report them from now on.
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Wed: hawkish minutes, a strong 10-year auction, and yields that went nowhere. Plan graded.
Covers Wednesday October 7, with the pre-registered plan graded at the close. The September FOMC minutes said most participants saw another hike as likely appropriate by year end: hawkish by the plan's rule. The $39 billion 10-year reopening sold at 5.300 percent, a 1.7 basis point stop-through, with a 2.77 bid-to-cover and 80.3 percent indirects (Treasury Fiscal Data): strong. The two legs pointed the 10-year in opposite directions, so its call is void; it closed up 0.8 basis points at 5.277 percent. DXY up and gold down were hits, USD/JPY a two-pip miss. Candidly, nearly all of the dollar and gold moves came before the minutes were released.
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A plain-English guide to the trade balance and the dollar.
Written Tuesday October 6, using the August trade release ($105.6 billion deficit, Census/BEA) as the live example. The textbook says a wider deficit weakens the dollar; on release day it rarely does. Four reasons: most of the goods number is public a week earlier in the advance report; trade is a small slice of $9.6 trillion a day in FX turnover (BIS); every deficit is financed, so the price of financing matters more than the size; and causality runs both ways, since strong demand and a strong dollar both widen the gap. Where the balance does matter (GDP, the slow build of foreign-held liabilities, policy), and a conditional test for telling a harmless deficit from a worrying one.
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Mon-Tue: ISM Services prices hit 74, the 10-year touched 5.31, then gave it back.
Written Tuesday October 6 after the close, covering Monday October 5 and Tuesday October 6; no morning plan was registered, so nothing is graded. ISM Services printed 54.9 (consensus 55.2) with the Prices index at 74.0, its highest since July 2022. The 10-year rose 3.4 basis points to 5.311 percent and DXY to 102.17, and the official data put the whole move in real yields, with the breakeven unchanged. Tuesday: the trade deficit widened to $105.6 billion (Census/BEA), the 3-year auction drew a 2.62 bid-to-cover and a 57.6 percent indirect share, both softer than September, and the 10-year fell back to 5.269 anyway. Friday's open test is also settled: the official 2-year rose with the 10-year on October 2, so the bear-steepener explanation is out.
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A plain-English guide to why a weak jobs number can fail to rally bonds.
Written Sunday October 4, using Friday October 2 as the live example. The textbook chain runs from a weak payrolls print to lower growth, lower inflation, an easier Fed and lower yields. Each link can break: the miss may already be priced, the details (revisions, why unemployment moved, wages) may disagree with the headline, the long end carries term premium that payrolls barely speak to, and an inflation-focused Fed limits how far a growth miss can travel. How to tell those explanations apart with the 2-year versus 10-year split, same-week price data and the pre-release tape, and why the grading window has to be fixed before the number comes out.
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Friday recap: NFP 29k, yields rose anyway. Our plan failed on all four.
Written Sunday October 4, covering Friday October 2. September payrolls printed plus 29,000 against a consensus of roughly 85,000 to 90,000, with July and August revised down by a net 60,000; unemployment rose to 4.2 percent, largely on labour force entrants, and hourly earnings rose 0.1 percent (BLS). The first 30 minutes matched our pre-registered weak-print map. By the close the 10-year yield was up about 4 basis points, DXY flat, gold lower and USD/JPY higher: a fail on all four calls, graded in the open. Thursday folded in: ISM Manufacturing 54.5 with Prices at 77.9, initial claims 197,000. One observation consistent with the weak-versus-strong asymmetry hypothesis, not a confirmation.
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A plain-English guide to a cool print in a hawkish regime.
A hawkish regime is not a Fed that hikes; it is a Fed with a reaction function that responds asymmetrically to the balance of risks. Under the current Warsh-led framework the September SEP already builds in a specific inflation trajectory, so a print that is cool relative to consensus but in-line with the SEP path is neutral, not dovish. Three interpretations of a cool print (cool vs consensus but in-line with SEP; cool on a single sub-component; cool across every line back-to-back with a labor-side print) and the specific real-yield decomposition (nominal flat, real up, inflation compensation down) that explains why Wednesday delivered a firmer dollar on a decisively dovish Core PCE. Historical parallels: 1994-95 mid-cycle pause, 2005-06 measured-pace terminal, 2018-19 Powell pause. When to update priors: the second-order pattern across ISM Manufacturing, Nonfarm Payrolls, and October CPI, not the single print.
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Core PCE cool 3.0 YoY. DXY firmed. Brent cracked $98.
Wednesday September 30. August Core PCE undershot on both lines: 0.2 percent MoM (consensus 0.3), 3.0 percent YoY (consensus 3.3), the largest cool surprise since March. Under a typical Fed reaction function this is decisively dovish. Under the Warsh-led reaction function the currency firmed: DXY closed 101.45 (+8 pips), 10-year yield closed 5.289 (+3.4 basis points, fresh 19-year high), gold closed $4,184.50 (essentially flat), Brent cracked $98.43 (down $4.16, first close below $100 since August). USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks added a bearish corn overlay (2.10 billion bushels, 177 above expectations). The transmission that did not happen (a rate rally on a cool print) is the specific data point: real yields are extending as inflation compensation compresses, and that is doing the dollar-support work. Working thesis unchanged; the SEP trajectory holds.
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A plain-English guide to the Conference Board labor-market differential.
Inside the Conference Board Consumer Confidence composite sits a specific labor-market sub-index: percent answering "jobs plentiful" minus percent answering "jobs hard to get." The differential is a household-side perception of labor-market slack, distinct from JOLTS (employer-side) and from the unemployment rate. It leads U-3 by roughly three to four months at business-cycle turning points, materially faster than initial claims. Framework rule under the current Warsh-led regime: above plus 20 is hawkish; plus 10 to plus 20 is neutral; zero to plus 10 is dovish at the margin; below zero is recessionary. September's Conference Board release delivered a fourth consecutive monthly narrowing of the differential; the specific threshold that transmits to the FOMC's reaction function has not yet triggered. Three common errors to avoid, including reading the differential as a substitute for claims or JOLTS.
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Tuesday: Confidence cracked 82. Consolidation. Eyes on PCE.
Tuesday September 29. The Sep 28 preview called the compressed macro release for Tuesday; the BEA schedule sits it on Wednesday, so Tuesday delivered the eve session. Conference Board Consumer Confidence collapsed 6.7 points to 81.9 versus consensus 89.0, lowest since 2014, Expectations Index 63.6 (third consecutive monthly decline). Case-Shiller Home Price Index for July accelerated to 1.9 percent YoY (prior 1.6). The tape response: DXY firmed 17 pips to 101.37, 10-year yield up 1.5bp to 5.255, gold up $11.30 to $4,179.70, Brent slid to $102.59. The currency ignored a decade-plus-low sentiment print, which is the specific footprint of a Warsh Fed that discounts real-side softness in favour of inflation-first sequencing. Wednesday Core PCE is the decisive test.
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A plain-English guide to the quarter-end positioning window.
Quarter-end delivers 40 to 80 percent above typical FX turnover. Four flow types dominate: pension rebalancing (bond-buying when equities outperform), currency-hedge rebalancing (systematic JPY or EUR buying when USD assets appreciate), the WM/R London 4pm fix (index-tracking flow), and reporting-date positioning-cleanout (traders lock in gains on outperformers). Three specific days carry specific patterns: two days out (cleanout peaks), one day out (mechanical rebalancing peaks), quarter-end itself (hedges + fix peak). The framework test for distinguishing flow from macro: if a move retraces 70 percent or more inside four trading days, it was flow. Applied to Monday’s gold crack: watch the recovery pattern into Friday.
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Gold cracked $142. Quarter-end de-risk. Eyes on PCE Tuesday.
Two business days before Q3 quarter-end. Gold cracked $142.30 to $4,178.90, the largest single-session drop of the year and the first close below $4,200 since July. DXY consolidated at 101.08. USD/JPY pulled back 193 pips to 156.88 on Japanese repatriation flow. Brent slid to $100.36 as the Ust-Luga premium partially unwound. Chicago Fed National Activity Index and Dallas Fed manufacturing landed on the soft side. The tape wrote a quarter-end positioning-cleanout signature: large moves on light data, JPY-buying flow, and a technical break of gold’s 4,200 pivot that will only mean something if it holds through Tuesday’s compressed macro release day (Q2 GDP third estimate + August Core PCE + Consumer Confidence, all at 8:30 to 10:00 AM ET).
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A plain-English guide to the sentiment-vs-spending decoupling.
Historically consumer sentiment and consumer spending moved together. Post-2022 that relationship broke: sentiment can swing between "recession-adjacent" and modestly firm while retail sales holds flat-to-firm. Three explanations that fit the data: balance-sheet resilience from 2020-2023 fiscal transfers, sentiment-as-partisan-signal post-2016, and inflation-frame vs unemployment-frame differences. Michigan versus Conference Board: Michigan more inflation-sensitive, Conference Board more labour-market-sensitive. Four data points that carry the macro read (expectations sub-index, one-year vs 5-to-10-year inflation, partisan split, high vs low income). Under a Warsh-led hawkish regime, a Michigan expectations drop above 10 percent is a specific signal to watch for cross-asset confirmation.
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Michigan 48.1, inflation 4.6. Durables flat. DXY cooled.
Split Friday. Durable Goods flat MoM at $338.6B (beat consensus of -0.4 percent). Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final 48.1, lowest in four months, with Expectations dropping 10.1 percent to 46.3 and 12-month inflation expectations climbing to 4.6 percent from August’s 4.0 percent. DXY closed 100.97, the first pullback of the extension week (down 32 pips from Thursday’s 101.29). 10-year yield kept climbing to 5.184 (up 2.2bp), fresh 19-year high. Gold rebounded $23.20 to $4,321.20. Rate differentials held; the currency did not. That specific pattern is the first crack in the dollar-strength regime and the setup that shifts the reading of Tuesday September 30 Core PCE from a confirmation test to a decisive one.
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A plain-English guide to weekly jobless claims.
The DOL weekly claims release is administrative rather than survey-based: actual filings from state UI systems, not sampled. Initial claims measure the flow into unemployment (leading indicator); continuing claims measure the stock of insured unemployed (coincident indicator). The 4-week moving average is 30 percent less volatile than the weekly print and is the specific summary measure the FOMC staff uses. Framework rule for the current Warsh-led regime: 4-week average below 210k is hawkish, 210 to 240 is neutral, above 240 is dovish. Thursday’s 202,250 4-week reading sits deep in the hawkish bucket. Three common errors: reading the weekly level as trend, ignoring the reference week, confusing initial with continuing.
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Claims 197k. New homes +6.4. 10Y pressed 5.16.
Confirmation Thursday. Initial jobless claims 197k versus consensus 201k, one of the lowest readings since 1969; 4-week moving average 202,250; continuing claims 1.719M. Census New Home Sales for August 684k SAAR, up 6.4 percent MoM (though not statistically significant), with median new-home price down 5.8 percent year-on-year to $393,700. Fed governor Barr’s midday housing speech carefully neutral on rates. 10Y pressed to 5.162 (up 4.8bp), DXY added 19 pips to 101.29, gold slipped $20 to $4,298. USD/JPY closed 158.81, first close above 158.80 since March 2024. CME FedWatch October hike odds through 74 percent. The specific data confirmation Wednesday’s tape needed: labour market has not softened; housing bifurcating (soft existing, firm new with builder price cuts). Working thesis: additional-hike-within-2026 at 76 percent.
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A plain-English guide to flash PMIs vs ISM.
PMIs are diffusion indices: they measure the direction of change, not the level of activity. A 58 does not mean the economy is 8 percent above trend; it means roughly 58 percent of respondents report better conditions than last month. S&P Global flash lands two to three business days before ISM. Three differences: panel composition (S&P broader, ISM larger firms), sub-index construction (ISM more employment-sensitive, S&P more orders-sensitive), release timing (flash first-mover). Three sub-indices carry the macro read: employment (hiring pace), new orders (leads output), input prices (pipeline pressure). Under a Warsh-led hawkish regime a composite above 56 is hawkish, 52-56 neutral, below 52 dovish. Wednesday’s 58.4 sits deep in the hawkish bucket.
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10Y blew through 5.1. Flash PMIs, 58 composite.
S&P Global US flash PMIs at 9:45 AM ET blew every dial. Manufacturing 57.0 versus consensus 53.7 (prior 53.9), strongest since May 2022. Services 58.7 versus consensus 56.0, strongest in almost five years. Composite 58.4, 62-month peak. Employment sub-index at four-year high. 10-year yield tore 14.6bp higher, hit 5.14 intraday, closed 5.114, first daily close above 5.10 since 2007. DXY broke 101 cleanly to close 101.10 (+50 pips). Gold cracked $58 to $4,318.40. CME FedWatch October hike odds jumped from 55 to 66 percent. Transatlantic PMI split (US 58.4 composite vs UK 47.8 manufacturing) is the specific quantitative anchor for the right side of the dollar smile. Working thesis: additional-hike-within-2026 at 72 percent (up 10).
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A plain-English guide to Existing Home Sales as a macro signal.
NAR Existing Home Sales measures closed transactions on single-family homes, condos, and co-ops. Broad coverage (roughly 90 percent of the resale market), lagged (measures closings not contracts). Quantity leads price because homes are illiquid and price-sticky: sellers pull listings before cutting; buyers walk before overpaying. Three data points carry the macro read: the SAAR level (sub-4M is five-decade low ex-COVID), months-supply of inventory (leading signal, watch trajectory), regional bifurcation (Sunbelt vs Rust-Belt tells the labour-market transmission story). Existing Home Sales does not touch Owner’s Equivalent Rent, so a soft print does not undermine the Fed’s inflation-first reaction function. Where the signal matters is in the medium-term growth dashboard.
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Tuesday: Existing Homes 3.98M. Tape consolidated.
NAR Existing Home Sales for August 3.98 million SAAR, down 2.0 percent MoM and down 1.2 percent YoY. Months-supply climbed to 4.9 months, highest in more than a decade. Median existing-home price $429,100, up 1.6 percent YoY (price still holding, volume slowing). Regional bifurcation: Northeast -4 percent, Midwest -3.1, South -1.6, West unchanged. Richmond Fed manufacturing inside range. The tape consolidated as expected in week two of the restart-hike: DXY 100.60 (+17 pips), gold $4,376.40 (-$7.50), 10Y 4.968 (+0.5bp), USD/JPY 157.46 (essentially flat). Housing dashboard decelerating on quantity rather than cracking on price, which is a slower-growth read rather than distressed-market read. Working thesis unchanged from Monday.
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A plain-English guide to the week after an FOMC hike.
Week one after a Fed decision is the direct-reaction window (option-book unwinds, initial cross-asset repricing). Week two is the acceptance-and-testing window: the market has priced the surprise and is waiting for the next data anchor to either confirm or fade the trajectory. Four variables to watch (dollar extension vs consolidation, 2-year path signal, term-premium proxy, USD/JPY carry unwind). Three risks (fresh data undermines projection, oil supply shock reversal, Chair language walk-back). Historical parallels: 1994 saw 3.5 percent DXY extension over 30 sessions; 2015 saw 2.1 percent. The current 2026 restart-hike sits inside that range.
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Monday: week after the hike. Priced. Eyes on Core PCE.
First session of week two after the September 16 restart-hike. DXY consolidated 13 pips higher at 100.45, USD/JPY grinded to 158.75 on BoJ member Tamura naming "additional adjustments are appropriate if the outlook is realised," gold slipped $17 to $4,258 as the Phase 4 rebase case retired, 10Y at 4.918 down 0.7bp. Chicago Fed National Activity Index +0.11 versus consensus flat, first positive 3-month moving average since June. Jazan restart Phase Three brought Saudi capacity to 80 percent of pre-shock and pulled another chunk of the term-premium impulse. Tape confirms the SEP trajectory without extending violently, exactly the week-two acceptance-and-testing footprint. Friday September 26 Core PCE is the next test.
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A plain-English guide to quad witching with a macro catalyst.
Quad witching (third Friday of March, June, September, December) delivers 25 to 45 percent elevated volume, elevated intraday range, and reduced end-of-day directional conviction. Three pin-risk mechanics: gamma hedging unwind, pin risk on specific strikes, dividend arbitrage flow. When a macro catalyst lands on the same session (BoJ decision on September 18): FX and rates carry cleaner signal than equities (which are subject to pin mechanics); Monday morning re-pricing is where the real read lives; vol collapses across the following Mon-Wed as the market reprices to a normal regime. The three signals to log Friday (FX close clean, rates close clean, equity close treated as approximate).
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BoJ hiked to 1.25. Yen fell. Quad witching, $7T notional.
The 48-hour Fed-then-BoJ window resolved for dollar strength on both dimensions. BoJ 25bp hike to 1.25 percent, 7-2 vote with Asada and Sato dissenting. Ueda press conference measured and dovish: six "data-dependent" uses, specific refusal to name a December-meeting expectation, "no promise of subsequent moves" phrasing. USD/JPY added 185 pips on a BoJ hike day, closing at 158.05, textbook Combination 2 (hike + measured + split) that the framework flagged as most likely at 45 percent. DXY through 100.32, first close above 100.30 since March. Quad witching Friday saw approximately 7 trillion dollars of options notional expire, the second-largest September expiration on record. Gold closed below $4,280.
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A plain-English guide to the Fed-then-BoJ 48-hour window.
A Fed decision Wednesday followed by a BoJ decision Friday compresses the pricing window: the market has to close positioning from meeting one and re-open into meeting two without a full intervening session of price discovery. USD/JPY is the only G10 pair where both central banks matter equally. The four outcome combinations decompose the setup: (1) BoJ hike + hawkish + unanimous (double-compression, USD/JPY reverses violently, ~15 percent probability given Sep 17 setup), (2) BoJ hike + measured + split (hike-but-yen-falls, USD/JPY 157-158.50, ~45 percent), (3) BoJ hold + hawkish hint + split hint (~25 percent), (4) BoJ hold + dovish + unanimous (yen crushed, ~15 percent). Ueda communications playbook.
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Post-FOMC: DXY broke 100. BoJ eve. Housing Starts fell.
First full session after Wednesday hike. DXY broke 100 on the London close for the first time this cycle, closed 100.07 up 22 pips. 10Y to a new thread high 4.938 percent. USD/JPY grinded through 156.20 with BoJ Day 1 opening in Tokyo evening. Housing Starts 1.275 million, 2.6 percent below revised July (single-family +7.6 percent, multifamily -21.7 percent). Claims 196,000, fifth consecutive print below 210k. Philly Fed +34.0 (down 13.4 from August peak but still deeply expansionary, prices paid 64.2 highest since June 2022). Setup for USD/JPY doubly binary going into BoJ Friday: hawkish Fed already priced, BoJ direction determines whether pair extends toward 158-160 or reverses toward 152-154.
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A plain-English guide to restarting a hiking cycle.
A hike inside an existing cycle is a repricing of the trajectory. A hike that restarts a cycle after a long hold is a repricing of the entire policy regime. Four historical parallels: 1994 (Greenspan Fed hiked 25bp after 21-month hold, 300bp of hikes over following 12 months, DXY +6 percent, gold -15 percent), 1999-2000 (12-month hold, 150bp over next year), 2015-2018 (7-year hold, initially slow pace, DXY -9 percent in 2016 as pace disappointed), 2026 (Warsh unanimous 25bp after 26-month hold, SEP median jumped 30bp to 4.10 percent, no cuts through 2027). Three signals the market reprices in first two weeks: front-end, term-premium proxy, dollar in week two.
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Warsh delivered. Hike 12-0. Dot 4.10. DXY broke 100.
Tentpole of the fortnight. FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00 percent, first hike since July 2023. SEP median 2026 year-end 4.10 (up 30bp from June 3.80); median 2027 year-end 4.10 (up 50bp from 3.60, implying no cuts through 2027 calendar year); median 2028 year-end 3.60. Core PCE 2026 revised to 3.60 from 3.40. GDP down to 1.7 from 1.9. Unemployment up to 4.4 from 4.2. Statement 130 words (shortest since March 2020), forward-guidance language dropped, "inflation remains too high" replacing "inflation remains elevated". Warsh press conference 47 minutes: "I did not submit a dot for me on this SEP", "symmetric reaction function, not committed to a specific path", "the Committee is not comfortable with the trajectory of inflation expectations". DXY through 100.05 intraday, closed 99.85 up 67 pips. 10Y at 4.905 (+9.0bp), 2Y at 4.529 (+12.1bp). Gold cracked $4,320.
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A plain-English guide to FOMC-eve gamma compression.
On the day before an FOMC decision, dealers hedging option books run short gamma positions across DXY and rates. Short-gamma hedging pushes dealers to sell into strength and buy into weakness, which dampens the tape response to unrelated catalysts by 30 to 50 percent. Three signatures: catalyst reactions dampened, implied vol premium widening into the close, two-way ranges collapse. Wednesday reaction is amplified by 20 to 40 percent relative to a no-compression baseline because dealers have to reverse the hedging. The Warsh-first-FOMC wrinkle: press conference tenor vol premium wider than statement tenor, because the market has no calibration for his cadence.
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FOMC eve: Empire 7.6, NAHB 32. Tape braced dovish risk.
Two regional data dovish surprises the day before the decision. Empire State Manufacturing +7.6 versus consensus 15.0 (13-point drop, weakest print since December 2025), new orders +2.0, shipments -3.2 (first negative since March), prices paid 63.1 (highest since July 2022). NAHB Housing Market Index 32 versus consensus 34, lowest in a year, 38 percent of builders reported cutting prices. Tape response measured: DXY -10 pips to 99.18, 10Y down 1.7bp to 4.815, gold caught small bid to $4,368. Two-hour lag between prints delivered a clean two-step dovish impulse but aggregate magnitude was modest. That is textbook FOMC-eve gamma compression: catalyst reactions dampened 30-50 percent because option books running short gamma. Hawkish-hike distribution holding at 66-68 percent per OIS.
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A plain-English guide to a pre-FOMC weekend.
The FOMC blackout window is a self-imposed rule: from the second Saturday before the meeting through the Thursday after, no Reserve Bank president, no governor, and no committee member speaks publicly on policy. Three specific signatures on a pre-FOMC Monday: volume compresses 20 to 35 percent below trailing average, ranges tighten 25 to 40 percent, positioning skews get set. Four signals the Monday tape gives about the Wednesday move: direction lean, range dispersion, rates-vs-dollar coherence, vol-of-vol read. The specific setup on Sep 14, 2026 (committed and quiet, 28 percent vol premium) means Wednesday reaction will be proportional to SEP-median surprise, not violent.
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Monday: pre-FOMC positioning quiet. Brent eased on Jazan restart.
FOMC blackout in effect, no committee member on record. DXY inside Fridays range, closed 99.28 down 7 pips. EUR/USD futures volume at 71 percent of trailing five-session average (compressed). 10Y down 1.3bp to 4.832; the term-premium footprint from Sept 8 held without extending. Gold higher for the first time in seven sessions, small bid at $4,352. USD/JPY drifted to 154.60. Aramco confirmed Jazan partial restart at approximately 45 percent of pre-shock capacity, Brent shed a dollar to $96.90. Volume compression, range compression, and cross-asset coherence are the textbook pre-FOMC-weekend footprint. The FOMC reaction on Wednesday will be proportional to the SEP-median surprise magnitude, not violent.
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A plain-English guide to a CPI-plus-Michigan Friday.
When CPI at 8:30 AM ET and Michigan preliminary at 10:00 AM ET land the same day, the market gets two orthogonal signals inside a ninety-minute window: hard-data inflation (CPI) plus soft-data consumer perceptions of realised and expected inflation (Michigan). The Fed weights the two together, not independently, because persistence is a function of both. The 2x2 matrix of hot-or-cool-CPI by anchored-or-unmoored-expectations gives four setups with distinct tape signatures. September 11 delivered the "hot CPI + unmoored expectations" case (~15 percent of hot-CPI Fridays). Reading the ninety-minute window: full extension on CPI vs half-extension-plus-big-second-push vs reversal on Michigan.
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CPI hot core 0.3. Michigan 47.8. Hike locked in.
Last major data anchor before FOMC blackout. August CPI headline +0.4 percent MoM versus consensus +0.2, YoY 3.4 percent unchanged. Core +0.3 percent MoM versus consensus +0.3 but YoY up 0.1 point to 2.4 percent. Gasoline +3.9 percent (Jazan pass-through partial). Shelter +0.3 percent, three times July pace. Michigan preliminary 47.8 versus consensus 51.0 (weakest since May record low), one-year inflation expectations 4.6 percent, five-year 3.4 percent (unmoored territory, highest since 1995 outside 2022 peak). DXY through 99.35, 10Y to a new thread high 4.845. Hike odds at 68 percent per OIS. FOMC blackout closes at midnight; distribution now locked into hawkish-hike as base case with SEP dot plot median as the residual variable.
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A plain-English guide to final-demand PPI-to-CPI transmission.
Wholesale prices transmit to consumer prices through three specific channels each with its own lag and pass-through elasticity. Channel 1: direct pass-through in goods (30-60 day lag, 0.60-0.85 elasticity). Channel 2: intermediate-goods embedded cost (90-180 day lag, 0.20-0.35 elasticity). Channel 3: services pass-through via input costs (portfolio management fees direct to PCE, healthcare services 60-90 day lag). Reading a diesel-driven print: Jazan supply shock only partially in the August CPI print; larger effect lands in September CPI (October release). Core-goods-vs-services split more informative than headline. Four questions to ask on a hot-goods PPI day.
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PPI +0.4. Diesel shock +24.1. Hike odds firmed to 65.
August PPI final demand +0.4 percent MoM versus consensus +0.2, YoY +5.4 percent. Core +0.3 percent versus consensus +0.2. Diesel wholesale prices +24.1 percent, single largest line move in the report, accounts for roughly three-quarters of goods +1.1 percent aggregate. Services PPI at +0.1 percent (soft, dovish on sticky-inflation). Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 196,000 (lowest since July 60-year low). 10Y auction reopening awarded at 4.815 percent with indirect bidders 68.4 percent. DXY undershot the surprise (+15 pips versus 60-100 pip framework band), which is the diagnostic that structural offset is at work. 10Y to 4.828, new thread high. Hike odds moved from 60 to 65 percent per OIS. Setup into Friday CPI is the last data anchor before FOMC blackout closes.
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A plain-English guide to a pre-PPI tape.
Producer Price Index for Final Demand: measures average change in selling prices received by domestic producers. Three headline aggregates (goods, services, construction); the desk watches core "final demand less foods, energy, and trade services". PPI matters for two reasons: (1) some components feed core PCE more directly than CPI does (portfolio management fees, healthcare services); (2) PPI is a lead indicator on cost pressure that has not yet flowed to the consumer. A pre-PPI Wednesday tape has three consistent features: position-clearing on front-end, DXY consolidation, gold and silver ranges compressing. Elasticity of DXY move to surprise: linear inside +/- 0.3 percentage point band, quadratic outside it. Three signals to read on the Wednesday close.
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Wednesday consolidation. Below 99 into PPI Thursday.
DXY closed 99.05 up 13 pips, first close in the 99.00-99.10 band since August 20. Intraday two hours above 99 in New York morning before fading into London close. 10Y down 1.1bp to 4.795, but Tuesdays thread high held. Gold down $16.70 to $4,380, first close below $4,400 since August 26. USD/JPY partial reversal to 154.10 (+57 pips): Ueda scheduled Bankers Association remarks failed to extend Takata language; BoJ MPM hike odds slipped to 42 percent from 45-50 Tuesday. Ueda a modest disappointment for the hawkish-BoJ read. Aramco confirmed Jazan will remain fully offline through the weekend. Setup pattern is textbook single-catalyst reversal in the pair with the specific policy driver (Regime 2 fades), no extension in aggregate dollar. Thursday PPI is the operative variable.
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A plain-English guide to when higher yields stop supporting the dollar.
The yield-differential model (higher UST yields pull dollar higher) works most of the time and breaks in three specific regimes. Regime 1: the yield move is term-premium rather than real-rate, so foreign capital does not rebalance into the dollar; signature is long-end steeper than front-end and TIPS breakevens widening. Regime 2: foreign policy repricing narrows the forward differential even when spot US yields rise; signature is a sharp move in the single pair with the policy news, other DXY components lagging. Regime 3: a crossflow shock (oil, terms of trade, reserves policy) changes the balance-of-payments arithmetic for the paired currency. The three regimes usually run together; separating them is the diagnostic skill. Tuesday September 8 delivered roughly 40/55/5 across the three.
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Tuesday: DXY broke 99. 10Y at 4.81. USD/JPY collapsed to a 7-month low.
First full session after Labor Day delivered a three-way divergence: 10Y yield to a thread high of 4.806 percent, DXY through 99 to a two-week low at 98.92, USD/JPY down 251 pips to 153.53 on Takata follow-through and BoJ hike bets. NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations printed one-year inflation unchanged at 3.6 percent and three-year down 0.1 to 3.2 percent. Houthi attack on Saudi Jazan refinery put 400k barrels per day offline and pushed Brent to $99.38, the highest close since July 23. Rate-differential model breaks in three regimes running together: term premium (long-end steepening on Jazan-shock inflation impulse), foreign policy repricing (BoJ MPM September 17-18 hike odds moved to 45-50 percent), and residual crossflow. FOMC September 15-16 and BoJ September 17-18 create a doubly binary two-day window; CPI Friday is the last data anchor before both.
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A plain-English guide to why a hot NFP might not move the dollar.
A hot NFP with the front-end pricing the hike but the FX not extending is a specific and recurring footprint. Three mechanisms produce it. Mechanism 1: dollar-long positioning is already stretched (CFTC net above 70th percentile), so the marginal dollar-buyer is a leveraged fast-money desk that already owns dollars. Mechanism 2: flip-week Week 2, where the aggressive dollar-long positioning that would have amplified a hot print is already in place; the print corroborates rather than creates. Mechanism 3: a crossflow story (BoJ-hawk, ECB-hawk, oil supply) offsets one leg of the DXY basket. The signature diagnostic is the ratio of front-end move (basis points) to DXY move (pips); a standard NFP prints 1.5-2.5 pips per basis point, a priced-in-rates-only print prints 0.3-0.7. Friday September 4 fits the pattern with 2018, 2022, and 2023 parallels.
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Friday: NFP +162k blew out the flip. DXY yawned, gold gave back.
August NFP printed +162,000 versus +53,000 consensus (a 200 percent-plus upside surprise) with unemployment holding at 4.1 percent, wages +0.3 percent MoM, and revisions adding +55k to prior two months. Fed hike odds for September 15-16 FOMC moved from roughly 50-55 percent to about 60 percent. Yet DXY closed only 16 pips higher at 99.16; EUR/USD moved zero pips; gold sold $62; 10Y up 2.2bp to 4.784 percent. The classic in-the-price footprint: front-end priced the print, FX did not because the flip has already run its Week 1 crowd-unwind. Working thesis moves to hawkish-hike 60 percent; the next swing factor is CPI Friday September 11.
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A plain-English guide to NFP-eve inside a Fed-hike-flip week.
NFP-eve inside a Fed-hike-flip week is the specific case where two overlapping compression shapes (post-flip crowd-unwind Week 1 and pre-NFP standard eve) run simultaneously. Five signatures identify the doubly-compressed shape: volume 20-30 percent below trailing, implied vol rising steeply while realised collapses, data-print responses smaller than the same prints outside a flip-week, cross-pair correlation tightening toward 1.0, session close unusually close to the 4:00 PM London fix. Three Friday resolution shapes with base rates 45 / 30 / 25 percent; the Case 3 soft-print response magnitude is 2-3x the Case 1 corroboration response because the compressed flip positioning has to unwind alongside the standard NFP-response flow.
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Thursday: claims and ISM Services corroborated the flip. Pre-NFP gamma compression.
Weekly Claims for week ending Aug 29 firm; ISM Services PMI in line with 54.3 consensus and Employment sub-index above 50. Gold bid off the $4,300 to $4,400 back-fill zone for the third session, closing $4,420 (+0.84 percent). DXY held 99.545 with a 25 percent retrace of Wednesday post-ADP high. 10Y softened 1bp to 4.78 percent as the front-end priced tomorrow NFP rather than today prints. Case for Phase 4 rebase-and-restart on gold gaining evidence. NFP-eve inside a flip-week is a doubly-compressed session: volume 20 percent below trailing, realised vol under 4 vol points, data-print responses smaller than the same prints would trigger outside a flip-week. Setup: hawkish-hike 55 percent, invalidation triggers if NFP prints below 40k with unemployment ticking to 4.3.
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A plain-English guide to ADP signal quality inside a hike-flip week.
ADP inside a flip-week has three jobs (standard ADP-to-NFP anchor; first cross-check on the flip labour-market story; positioning signal on how far the crowd-unwind has run) versus one outside a flip-week. Signal quality is worse in noise but better in information; net matters more but harder to read. Four archetypal flip-week ADP prints (firm-corroborates, ambiguous-with-offset, soft-without-revision, aligned-soft-with-ISM) each with different response magnitudes and different implications for the flip four-week base rates. Three tape-signature diagnostics (front-end direction and magnitude, DXY-vs-gold response, two-day volume trajectory) classify which of the four shapes today print delivered. Three common misreads: treating the miss as decisive when it comes with a firm revision, extrapolating Wednesday response to Thursday, ignoring the Beige Book on the same afternoon.
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Wednesday: ADP 38k soft, weakest since January. Gold bounced. DXY held 99.7.
ADP Employment Change for August printed +38,000 vs +47,000 consensus (weakest since January), with July revised up from +32k to +46k. Sector split led by services and health; professional services -32k, manufacturing -17k dragged. Fed Beige Book at 2 PM ET called labor markets "tight in most districts, though some easing was reported"; prices "little changed to modestly higher." Case 2 ambiguous shape from compressed-release framework: 2Y down 2.5bp to 4.371 percent inside 45 minutes, DXY held 99.71 up 29 pips, gold bounced $26 to $4,383. Front-end retrace signature reads as flip-consolidation not flip-fade. Setup holds: hawkish-hike 55 percent unchanged, resolution deferred to Friday NFP. Thursday claims and ISM Services are the pre-NFP anchors.
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A plain-English guide to reading ISM plus JOLTS as a single signal.
First-Tuesday-of-the-month 10:00 AM ET compressed release: ISM Manufacturing and JOLTS land in the same one-minute window and the market treats them as one signal. Three reasons the fusion is the reading convention (shared window, complementary labour coverage, both are Fed reaction-function inputs). Four archetypal combined signatures (both firm aligned-hawkish, both soft aligned-dovish, ISM firm plus JOLTS soft mixed, ISM soft plus JOLTS firm stagflationary) each with characteristic tape response magnitudes 1.5x to 2x sum. Five diagnostic dimensions to classify the print. Warsh-era reading convention: aligned-firm reinforces the September FOMC hike case, aligned-soft pushes back, mixed cases hold the setup. Three common misreads: elevating Construction Spending to a third signal, reading Prices Paid as a demand signal, ignoring JOLTS revisions.
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Tuesday: ISM 54.6 held expansion, JOLTS 7.27M openings. Gold lost 2.86 percent.
Three-print 10 AM ET compressed morning corroborated Friday post-Warsh flip. ISM Manufacturing PMI for August at 54.6 (down 1.0 from 55.6, eighth month of expansion); Employment sub-index 51.2 above 50; Prices Paid above 60 for the fifth consecutive month. JOLTS July at 7.271 million openings (+89k), openings rate 4.4 percent; hires fell 294k to 5.054 million (rate 3.2 percent, weakest since February). Case 1 aligned-hawkish signature under the compressed-release framework. Gold -$128 (-2.86 percent) to $4,357, intraday low $4,318 tested the $4,300-$4,400 back-fill zone. 10Y broke through 4.75 percent to 4.80 (+8.8bp). DXY reclaimed 99.42 with third sub-100 session. 2s10s widened to 41bp (not recession pricing). Setup: hawkish-hike moves to 55 percent from 45.
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A plain-English guide to month-end FX rebalancing flows.
Month-end rebalancing is a stack of four sub-flows (equity-side, bond-side, sovereign-fund and central-bank reserve, corporate-treasury dividend and coupon) that converge on the WMR 4:00 PM London fix. Direction depends on relative asset-class performance during the month: US-equity outperformance produces dollar-selling; underperformance produces dollar-buying; large DXY moves during the month can override. Three interaction patterns with macro flow (same-direction reinforcement, opposite-direction cancellation, fix-driven overshoot and retrace); today Aug 31 delivered the opposite-direction cancellation shape with post-Warsh flip-bid against equity-outperformance rebalance-offer. Four measurable tape signatures for identifying the rebalance footprint in the 3-4 PM London window.
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Monday: month-end DXY held 99. Post-Warsh digestion.
First trading day post-Warsh keynote. Dallas Fed Manufacturing +1.4 (first positive since June). Month-end fixings ran their standard windows. Two flows fought on the tape: Friday distribution-flip flow (dollar bid, gold offer, front-end bid) still active but ran into month-end rebalancing that leaned dollar-selling on US-equity outperformance. Result: DXY held 99.28 essentially flat (-6 pips); gold bounced $12 off Friday post-Warsh low but no reclaim of $4,540; 10Y softened 1.3bp with 2s10s widening back to 39bp (roughly 25 percent retrace of Friday bear-flattening). Working thesis from Friday holds: hawkish-hike 45 percent, hold-with-hawkish-language 35 percent. Tuesday ISM+JOLTS is the first data test.
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A plain-English guide to a Chair keynote flipping the distribution.
A single Fed Chair keynote can flip the probability distribution for the next FOMC by 100+ percentage points across modal outcomes. Happens once every 12-18 months globally. Distinguish from a magnitude-surprise (modal outcome held, weight shifted). Five tape signatures on a flip session (cross-asset amplification well above eve-gamma projection, front-end leads belly and long-end 2-3x, cross-asset consistency across all pairs, positioning-driven overshoots with 20-40 percent retrace inside 90 minutes, implied vol collapse alongside realised extension). Four-week second-order pattern: Week 1 crowd unwind, Week 2 data-flow test, Week 3 distributional re-calibration, Week 4 next-catalyst focus. Five re-calibration questions for updating the framework probability weights. Base rates: flip extends 55 percent, flip fades 30 percent, flip fails and inverts 15 percent.
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Warsh delivered hawkish at Jackson Hole. Gold crashed 2.75 percent. Cut thesis invalidated.
Chair Warsh keynote at 10 AM ET committed the Fed to the 2 percent PCE target as "firm and fixed," called July headline PCE at 3.7 percent "concerning," said the committee "still has work to do," and announced a deliberate move to a quieter Fed communication posture. Chicago PMI 47.1 vs 57.9 consensus (10.5-point collapse) same morning at 9:45 AM ET. Gold -$126.53 (-2.75 percent) to $4,474.45, broke through $4,540 and $4,500 support levels; Phase 3 top-signal pattern complete. 10Y +5.5bp to 4.726 percent; 2Y +12.4bp to 4.356 percent (bear-flattening 2s10s to 27bp). DXY reclaimed 99.34 (+55 pips). Fed funds futures flipped from 65 percent dovish-cut to 60 percent hawkish-hike. Honest post-mortem: input probability distribution was wrong on the July-PCE reaction function under Warsh; cross-asset consistency worked but on a wrong distribution.
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A plain-English guide to keynote-eve gamma compression.
The day before a Fed Chair keynote (or ECB Sintra opening, IMF Governor speech, BoJ policy address) delivers a specific tape shape: FX and rates volume 20-40 percent below trailing, implied vol rising while realised falling, intraday moves that pop on news and fade inside 30 to 90 minutes, bid-ask spreads widening in the last two hours, range compression 30-50 percent versus trailing, cross-pair correlation tightening toward 1.0. Three mechanisms combine (paired-risk positioning, discretionary-flow thinness, dealer gamma absorption). Three keynote-day resolution shapes with base rates 55 / 25 / 20 percent (amplification, fade, two-way spike). Three exception cases that break the framework (concurrent same-day catalyst, Chair pre-announces thesis, keynote cancellation).
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Thursday: claims 203k firm. Pre-Warsh gamma compression as forecast.
Weekly Jobless Claims for week ending Aug 22 printed 203,000 vs 208k consensus and prior revised up 206k to 207k. Continuing claims 1.951 million (+8k). July advance Goods Trade Balance $92.4 billion deficit (wider than $88.5 billion consensus). The gamma-compression session the pre-symposium framework called: FX volume 25 percent below trailing, implied vol rising while realised falling, positioning gamma compressed. Claims pop faded within 40 minutes; DXY closed 19 pips down at 98.79. Gold consolidated with a 48-point range around $4,600. 10Y +1.3bp to 4.67 percent. Firm claims into a keynote tightens the space for a dovish Warsh; hawkish-tilt tail unchanged at 5 percent. Friday delivers the amplification, fade, or two-way-spike keynote-day shape.
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A plain-English guide to compressed macro release days.
A compressed release day is any session where two or more scheduled prints hit inside the same 30-minute window. Compression happens when the default calendar collides with a fixed-holiday shift, a Fed communication window, or a legally mandated deadline. Wednesday August 26, 2026 delivered the archetypal case: BEA moved the Q2 GDP second and July Core PCE together to clear Jackson Hole. Two prints in one window amplifies the signal by 1.5 to 2 times through positioning gamma compression, not just release timing. Four archetypal cases (aligned, dominant-print, ambiguity, in-line) each have a characteristic tape response; five diagnostic dimensions tell them apart. Today scored Case 4 (in-line) with a modest tilt to Case 2 through the headline PCE overshoot.
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Wednesday: gold closed $4,593 confirming Phase 3 rejection. PCE 3.3 in line, GDP 1.5 unrevised, DXY held 99.
The compressed BEA double-release landed clean. Q2 GDP second estimate at 1.5 percent (unchanged from advance), July Core PCE at 0.2 percent MoM / 3.3 percent YoY (in line with consensus), July headline PCE at 3.7 percent YoY (10bp above consensus on energy pass-through). Gold made a second attempt at $4,700 with a fresh high of $4,715 then rejected 122 points into the New York close at $4,593.74, firing the invalidated-if trigger from Tuesday and confirming the Phase 3 top signal. 10Y firmed 2bp to 4.66 percent, giving back part of Tuesday supply-shock rally consistent with the fade-signature framework. DXY held 98.98 in a 46-pip range. Brent extended $1.81 lower to $84.06 on Iran-Oman maritime corridor development. Setup: dovish cut probability 65 percent, persistent-split 18 percent. Thursday claims and Friday Warsh at 10 AM ET are the last catalysts before the keynote.
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A plain-English guide to supply-shock vs growth-shock bond rallies.
A 6bp decline in the 10-year looks the same on the tape regardless of driver, but supply-shock rallies fade in one to two weeks while growth-shock rallies extend for four to eight. Five diagnostic dimensions (break-even decomposition, coincident commodity move, cross-asset direction, dollar behavior, OIS repricing magnitude) tell the two archetypes apart. The Fed reads them differently: supply-shock deflation is looked through, growth-shock disinflation produces policy response. Risk assets respond in opposite directions: supply-shock is risk-positive, growth-shock is risk-negative. Today's Tuesday August 25 tape scores four-of-five supply-shock signatures on the Brent-driven yield rally.
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Tuesday: gold rejected fresh high $4,696, Brent crashed 5 percent, 10Y rallied 6bp.
Cross-asset cascade from an oil supply shock. Gold made a fresh cycle high $4,696 intraday then rejected 90 points to close $4,655, essentially flat vs Monday $4,651 (first Phase 3 red session, $4,700 pushed and rejected on the day). Brent -5.08 percent to $85.87 on API 4.2M crude build (vs 1.9M consensus), OPEC+ output hike commentary, and IEA demand-outlook downgrade. 10Y -6.2bp to 4.6388 through the oil-inflation-to-rates channel. DXY held 98.91 (sub-99 second session, 99 tested and rejected). Consumer Confidence missed at 89.4 vs 90.3 consensus, but the story is the Expectations Index at 68.2 (down 5.8 points), the lowest since January. Setup update: dovish cut probability firms to 72 percent. Wednesday BEA compressed release (Q2 GDP second + July Core PCE, both 8:30 AM ET) is the pre-symposium Phase 2 test.
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A plain-English guide to a pre-symposium positioning week.
The three-to-five sessions before a Fed Chair keynote at Jackson Hole (or ECB Sintra, IMF meetings) follow a recognisable shape because the same accounts position around the same fixed event. Four phases: Monday-Tuesday squaring, Wednesday macro-buffer, Thursday gamma-compression, Friday keynote-day. Measurable footprint: FX and rates volume runs 20-30 percent below trailing average through Wednesday, then jumps 50-100 percent above on keynote-day; option-implied vol rises even as realised falls; positioning gamma compresses. Compressed release calendars (like Wednesday August 26, 2026: BEA moved GDP second + Core PCE together) amplify surprise response 1.5-2x. Historical precedents: Powell 2020 (AIT continuation), Powell 2022 ("pain" reversal), Powell 2018 (neutral fade).
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Monday: gold to $4,651 fresh high. DXY back at 99. Pre-Jackson-Hole quiet open.
Gold extended +$47 (+1.01 percent) to another cycle high $4,651; Phase 3 of the multi-year-high framework now roughly one session from the $4,700 interim target. DXY 98.99 tested but did not reclaim the 99 handle. 10Y softened 3.4bp to 4.7011 (first pullback after five sessions of term-premium extension). Brent -1.23 percent to $90.46. Wednesday August 26 is a compressed BEA double-release (Q2 GDP second estimate + July Core PCE, both at 8:30 AM ET), pulled forward one day to avoid Jackson Hole conflict. Friday August 28 at 10:00 AM ET is Chair Warsh's keynote. Setup: consensus PCE 2.90 percent YoY, band 2.85-2.95 percent lets the pre-symposium regime hold; above 3.00 percent flips the pre-Warsh setup.
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A plain-English guide to reading a Jackson Hole speech.
Jackson Hole (last weekend of August) is the most-anticipated Fed communication outside FOMC meetings. Three reasons speeches carry more weight than typical Chair appearances (timing 2-3 weeks before September FOMC, academic-conference format encourages new frameworks, global central-banker audience). Six speech dimensions to watch (thesis/framework, forward guidance language, inflation-employment weighting, financial-conditions references, dispersion acknowledgments, data-dependency). Three tape-response phases and magnitude bands. Historical examples: Powell 2020 AIT, Powell 2022 "pain," Volcker 1979.
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Friday: gold to fresh high $4,605. Yields firm, DXY held. Pre-Jackson-Hole.
Gold extended +$78 (+1.73%) to $4,605 fresh cycle high; broke through $4,600 for the first time (Phase 3 of the multi-year-high-break framework, targeting $4,700 interim and $5,000 aspirational). DXY held sub-99 at 98.84. 10Y +3.9bp to 4.7356 (continued term-premium expansion). Lowe's Q2 comps -0.4% consistent with trade-down. Pre-Jackson-Hole positioning ahead of Warsh keynote Fri Aug 28. Market positioning: crowded long-gold ~85th pctile, short-dollar ~80th pctile, September cut 65-70% priced. Asymmetric setup: hawkish surprise > dovish continuation.
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A plain-English guide to regional Fed surveys vs national ISM.
Six regional Fed surveys (Empire State, Philly Fed, Richmond, Dallas, Kansas City, Chicago). Historical correlation to subsequent ISM: 0.55-0.65 for the composite, 0.4-0.5 for Philly Fed alone. Three reasons regional surveys can mislead (sample bias, geographic concentration, methodology differences). How markets read a big regional surprise (initial response then follow-through reduction, subsequent regional confirmation, ISM decisive). Aug 20 Philly Fed 47.4 vs 25.0 test framework.
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Thursday: Philly Fed shock 47.4 vs 25.0. Gold pinned near $4,527.
Weekly Claims 206k in-line. Philly Fed Manufacturing 47.4 vs 25.0 consensus (largest single-report beat since December 2020). Existing Home Sales 3.94M in-line. Walmart Q2 comps +3.1% (firmer than expected, pushed back on consumer-cracked narrative). Gold consolidated in wide range, closed $4,527 (+0.31%) at cycle high. DXY -4 pips to 98.79 held sub-99 despite hawkish print. 10Y +4.3bp to 4.6969. USDJPY +63 pips to 158.89. Walmart trade-down pattern supports "cut needed" case. Working thesis: dovish cut 70% (down from 75%).
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A plain-English guide to gold breaking multi-year highs.
Multi-year-high breaks in gold have three-phase dynamics. Phase 1 (Days 0-1) initial break with technical amplification. Phase 2 (Days 2-7) consolidation and back-test; ~65% first-attempt breaks hold. Phase 3 (Days 8-30) extension to next major level or reversal; ~55% reach next level within 3 months. Four supporting-factor check (Fed reaction-function shift, central-bank diversification, geopolitical premium, inflation stickiness); three of four active for current setup. Framework for August 19 break above $4,500.
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FOMC minutes dovish. Gold ripped +4.13%. DXY broke sub-99.
FOMC minutes revealed the majority-view discussion was materially more dovish than the hawkish three-dissent vote suggested. Committee-wide language on inflation as "sustained downward trajectory," labor softening as "material," and explicit reference to "considering rate cuts in the coming meetings" in the balance-of-risks section. Target Q2 comparable sales -2.1% confirmed consumer weakness. Cross-asset: gold +$179 to $4,512 (fresh cycle high, broke $4,500); DXY -83 pips to 98.83 (first sub-99 since March); USDJPY -130 pips to 158.26 (broke MOF-implied 158 lower bound); EUR/USD +98 pips to 1.1674. Working thesis: dovish cut at 75%, 50bp probability now ~18% on FedWatch.
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A plain-English guide to reading retail earnings as macro signal.
Five companies matter most: Walmart, Home Depot, Target, Lowe's, TJX. Three signals to extract: comparable sales trend (above +3% strong, below -1% weak), management guidance (raised/maintained/lowered/withdrawn), category-specific commentary (essentials vs discretionary vs trade-down). Aggregating the week produces highest-signal aggregate: aligned soft = decisive consumer-weakness signal. Home Depot Tuesday -0.6% sets tone; Target Wednesday and Walmart Thursday will confirm.
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Tuesday: gold -2.10%. Pre-minutes profit-taking consolidation.
Housing Starts + Permits in-line. Home Depot Q2 comparable sales -0.6% (soft; management "stable"). Pre-FOMC-minutes consolidation. Gold -$93 (-2.10%) to $4,333, largest single-session decline since July 22. Three-signal check indicates profit-taking not reversal: volume below-average, cross-asset alignment absent, sub-session pattern morning-only. 10Y -1.2bp; DXY +6 pips essentially flat; USDJPY +23 pips. Working thesis holds: dovish cut at 60%, minutes Wednesday is decisive.
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A plain-English guide to pre-FOMC-minutes positioning patterns.
Three patterns before minutes release: Pattern I Confirmation positioning (extends in direction of press-conference reading), Pattern II Uncertainty-hedging (reduces positioning, elevates volatility premium), Pattern III Contrarian positioning (moves opposite direction from tape). Response asymmetry: Pattern I creates hawkish-surprise vulnerability. Current setup Pattern I with modest II element; hawkish-minutes surprise would produce disproportionate reversal. Three extraction points: dissent language strength, balance-of-risks language, data-threshold language.
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Monday: Brent ripped +2.86%. Gold +$56. Stagflation-configuration returns.
Iran-front headline flow plus retail earnings week ahead. Brent CFD +$2.49 (+2.86%) to $89.66 (cumulative from Aug 4 low +14.4%). Gold +$56 to $4,426. 10Y +4bp to 4.721 on term-premium expansion (credibility discount continues). DXY -4 pips flat; USDJPY 159.33 held post-MOF-verbal range. Stagflation-configuration: Brent-up, gold-up, yield-up, dollar-flat. Working thesis holds; Wednesday minutes decisive.
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A plain-English guide to consumer confidence inflection signals.
Single-month Michigan Sentiment drops of 5+ points are inflection signals. Historical follow-through distribution: 45% retail contraction, 35% Fed pivot rescue, 20% recession within 12 months. Three inputs identify inflection vs noise: breadth of decline (both sub-indexes falling), demographic breadth (broad-based), consistency with Conference Board. Friday drop 55.2→51.0 (4.2 points at upper end of moderate signal, approaching inflection). Two of three inflection signals clean; overall reading: inflection with high confidence.
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Friday: Retail Sales -0.6%. Michigan Sentiment collapsed to 51.
US Retail Sales -0.6% MoM vs +0.2% consensus (largest cycle decline ex-pandemic). Michigan Sentiment preliminary 51.0, down from 55.2 July, well below 54.5 consensus. Inflation expectations: 1yr 4.3% (up 0.1); long-term 3.3% (unchanged). Consumer cracked. Combined with July NFP -23k, the data-flow shows labor + spending + sentiment all weakening simultaneously. Gold +$19 to $4,376 (modest); DXY -30 pips to 99.64; USDJPY -11 pips to 159.32; 10Y +5.5bp on term-premium/auction-supply positioning. Working thesis holds: dovish cut at 60%.
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A plain-English guide to profit-taking after a multi-session rally.
Distinguishing profit-taking (normal consolidation, trend eventually resumes) from reversal (change in underlying driver, full retracement) after a multi-session rally. Three-signal check: volume (below-average = profit-taking, above-average = reversal), cross-asset alignment (isolated = profit-taking, aligned = reversal), sub-session pattern (window-specific = profit-taking, sustained = reversal). Two-day rule: whether the next session extends or reverses is the decisive input. Base rates for each pattern.
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Thursday: profit-taking. Gold -1.28%, Brent -1.60%.
Weekly Claims 231k above 220k consensus (labor-market softening continues). PPI in-line. Gold -$58 to $4,357 after five sessions of gains; Brent -$1.40 to $85.85. 10Y -4.5bp to 4.625. Three-signal check on the gold move (volume below-average, cross-asset mixed, sub-session pattern morning-only): reads as profit-taking with ~70-75% confidence rather than reversal. Working thesis holds: dovish cut at 60%, September FOMC (Sept 17) approach with alignment.
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A plain-English guide to reading in-line data in a primed market.
In-line data prints are not automatically non-events. In a primed market (positioning already moved decisively in one direction), in-line prints can produce material continuation moves via secondary interpretation channels. Four response patterns: consolidation with continuation (most common), extension via secondary interpretation, partial retracement of primed direction, delayed hawkish reversal. Wednesday CPI landed into Pattern C/A primed-dovish; response fit Consolidation with Continuation.
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CPI in-line. Market consolidated the dovish read. Gold fresh cycle high.
US CPI July: headline +0.1% MoM (Y/Y 3.4%, down from 3.5%); core +0.2% MoM (Y/Y 2.5%, down from 2.6%). All in-line with consensus. Six-month annualized core PCE trajectory ~2.3%, within striking distance of Fed 2% target. Gold ripped +0.96% to fresh cycle high $4,414 as in-line print validated dovish repricing without triggering hawkish reversal. WASDE-day overlap did not affect broader tape. Working thesis: dovish cut at 60% (up from 55%).
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A plain-English guide to pre-CPI positioning patterns.
CPI releases produce among the largest scheduled market moves. Four pre-CPI positioning patterns: Aligned Conviction (aggressive positioning), Balanced Uncertainty (modest range-bound), One-Sided After Shock (post-NFP dovish extension), Hedging Surge (options-market visible). Reading the pattern predicts reaction magnitude asymmetry: primed markets react more to contrary prints than to confirming prints. Current setup Pattern B/C mixed.
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Tuesday: pre-CPI consolidation. Gold eased -0.68%.
NFIB 92.4 in-line. Pre-CPI positioning session ahead of Wednesday. Post-NFP Fed communications continued dovish alignment. Gold -$30 to $4,372 (consolidation after Monday cycle-high $4,402); USDJPY held 159.28 in post-MOF-verbal range; DXY 99.83. Brent +1.30% to $88.06 (continued Iran-headline extension). Consensus for CPI: core +0.2% MoM. Working thesis holds. Watch: 8:30 AM ET CPI Wednesday.
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A plain-English guide to MOF verbal intervention.
MOF verbal spectrum: routine commentary (0 signal), directional (5 pips), concern language (20-40), threat language (50-100), denial language (100-200; precursor to physical). Verbal operates in both directions: physical July 30 defended yen weakness (163+), verbal August 10 defended yen strength (157-). Identifies source rank, media placement, timing. Follow-through: verbal-only decays over 2-3 weeks absent physical or fundamental follow-up. Implicit MOF trading band of 158-163 now operational.
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Monday: USD/JPY +125 pips on MOF verbal reversal. Gold cycle high.
MOF verbal intervention in reverse direction from July 30 physical: characterized recent yen strength as "not warranted by fundamentals" through Nikkei attribution. USD/JPY reversed +125 pips from Friday post-NFP low to 159.16. Establishes implicit MOF trading band of 158-163. Gold extended +$61 to fresh cycle high $4,402. Brent +5.71% to $86.93 continued Iran-headline bid. 10Y jumped 6bp to 4.70 on term-premium expansion. Stagflation-configuration returns.
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A plain-English guide to reading a negative NFP print.
Three types: Type 1 (crisis-driven, magnitude 100k+ negative), Type 2 (inflection-point, modest with revisions), Type 3 (statistical noise). Six-signal check separates them (prior revisions, wage growth, unemployment move, participation, ADP alignment, JOLTS alignment). August 7 print reads Type 2 with 5-of-6 signal confirmation. Type 2 implications: follow-through expected, Fed response likely, recession risk 40% within 12 months. Base rates for tape response: gold +2-5%, DXY -100-250 pips, 10Y -10-25bp over 5-10 sessions.
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NFP shocked -23k. First negative headline of the cycle.
NFP July -23,000 vs +80,000 consensus. Prior months (May/June) revised -103k cumulative. Unemployment 4.1% (driven by labor-force participation decline). AHE +0.1% MoM, Y/Y 3.2% (lowest since May 2021). Temp-help layoffs +921,000. Under negative-NFP framework: 5-of-6 checks support Type 2 (inflection-point) with high confidence. Gold +2.09% to $4,341; DXY -32 pips sub-100. FedWatch September cut probability rose from 28% to 58%; cut is now base case. Working thesis: dovish cut at 55%.
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A plain-English guide to oil supply shocks by type.
Four types of oil supply shock: Type A single-vessel tanker incident (3-7% Brent), Type B multi-vessel/route-interference (8-15%), Type C state-actor blockade (20-40%), Type D permanent infrastructure damage (proportional to bpd loss). Four inputs identify type: vessels/facilities count, actor state vs non-state, duration expectation, response chain. Thursday incident was Type A; 50-70% typical retracement within 5-10 sessions.
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Thursday: Brent ripped +4.90% on Hormuz tanker headline.
Weekly Claims 224k in-line. Overnight tanker incident near Strait of Hormuz plus continued Iran-front flow. Brent CFD +$3.83 (+4.90%) to $82.76 reverses ~30% of the July 23-through-August 4 unwind. Gold consolidated -$26 to $4,252 after Wednesday +5%. 10Y +2.2bp to 4.641. DXY +29 pips reclaim from below 100. Under Type A (single-vessel) supply-shock framework: 50-70% typical retracement over 5-10 sessions absent additional events.
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A plain-English guide to outsized single-session gold moves.
Gold sometimes moves 3-10x what the catalyst would predict. Three amplification channels: real-yield decoupling ($3-4 per bp of real-yield change), positioning capitulation (short-covering cascades), central-bank momentum flow (CB diversification demand rising with the trend). Wednesday +$205 decomposition: ~25-30% real-yield, ~20-40% positioning, ~20-30% CB momentum. Follow-through: 3-phase pattern over 5-10 sessions; 40% extend, 35% consolidate, 25% retrace. Friday NFP is decisive input.
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Gold ripped +5.03% on soft ADP. Real yields cracked.
ADP +95k vs +150k consensus (first materially-below-consensus ADP of cycle). Gold +$205 to $4,278 (one of the largest single-session gains of the year). Real yields decoupled (nominal flat at 4.62, breakevens +8-10bp) producing the outsized gold response. DXY -22 pips modest; other cross-asset moves in-line with expected magnitude. FedWatch September cut probability 15%→28%. Post-FOMC Fed communications continue dovish alignment. Working thesis: dovish hold at 45%.
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A plain-English guide to reading NFP week: ADP, Claims, NFP.
NFP week begins Wednesday with ADP employment, continues Thursday with Weekly Initial Claims, closes Friday with NFP. This piece is the framework for reading the sequence: what ADP actually measures (private-sector, 25M workers), where it diverges from NFP (government, small business, seasonal adj), what Claims signals (weekly high-frequency labor read), what NFP's four numbers do (headline, AHE, unemployment, revisions), and how the three prints interact through the week.
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Tuesday: ISM Services firm at 52.6, Brent broke $80.
ISM Services 52.6 vs 52.0 consensus (services holding despite Manufacturing 49.2 on Monday). Brent CFD -5.76% to $78.35, first close below $80 since July 12; cumulative -17.5% from July 23 peak completes ~87% of the Iran-shock unwind. 10Y -5.6bp to 4.63, DXY held just below 100 at 99.87, gold +$19 to $4,073, USDJPY 157.71. Post-intervention range holding without fresh MOF operations. Sectoral picture "cooling but not contracting"; NFP Friday is the next material catalyst.
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A plain-English guide to ISM Manufacturing vs Services.
ISM Manufacturing (first business day of month) and ISM Services (third business day) both diffusion indexes; both use 50 as expansion/contraction boundary. Manufacturing is leading indicator; Services is coincident with the cycle. Sub-indexes (New Orders, Employment, Prices Paid, Supplier Deliveries) carry more signal than the headline. When the two diverge (one above 50, one below), the divergence typically persists 2-4 months before re-converging. Framework for the current Manufacturing 49.2 + Services expected 52.0 divergence.
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Monday consolidation. ISM Manufacturing 49.2, Brent extended lower.
ISM Manufacturing 49.2, below 50.0 consensus (first contractionary print since March). Employment sub-index 46.2 supports labor-market softening thesis. Two Fed regional presidents delivered speeches broadly aligned with Wednesday's dovish press-conference read. Brent CFD -4.87% to $83.14 on continued Iran-de-escalation unwind. DXY reclaimed 100.02 marginally, USDJPY 157.54 held post-intervention range, 10Y -4.8bp to 4.68. Working thesis (dovish hold 40%) unchanged.
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A plain-English guide to six-month annualized inflation.
Inflation gets reported YoY; the Fed reads it as six-month annualized. The two can differ materially when inflation is turning. YoY smooths but lags 6-9 months at turning points; six-month annualized captures the current trajectory. July 2026 core PCE at 3.3% YoY but ~2.85% six-month annualized: dovish trajectory below the Fed's 2% target range within striking distance. Formula, calculation, three-month alternative, base-effect and composition-shift caveats. Framework for reading a Fed reaction function focused on trajectory, not headlines.
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PCE cooled to 3.3%. DXY broke 100. Week closed dovish.
Core PCE 3.3% YoY (down from 3.4% May); MoM +0.1% vs +0.2% consensus. Six-month annualized core PCE at approximately 2.85%, materially below the Y/Y headline and the Fed's primary reference. DXY -43 pips to 99.71, first close below 100 since May. 10Y +5.7bp to 4.729 on continued term-premium expansion. Gold -$59 to $4,047 as real yields rose. USD/JPY -277 pips to 157.42 on continued post-intervention flow. Weekly recap: DXY -177 pips, USDJPY -636 pips (intervention driven), EUR/USD +160 pips. Dovish resolution decisive.
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A plain-English guide to reading a suspected FX intervention in real time.
Official confirmation of intervention comes days, weeks, or months after the event. Real-time reading uses five forensic signals: speed and shape (vertical drop plus partial recovery), absence of proximate catalyst, NY Fed rate check reported, cross-asset correlation decoupling (USDJPY down while 10Y up), historical timing pattern (after prolonged weakness, coincident with macro catalyst cover). All five signals passing puts intervention probability above 90%. Thursday's tape passed all five. What intervention buys, what it doesn't, three-phase follow-through pattern.
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MOF suspected intervention. USD/JPY 576-pip intraday range.
USD/JPY collapsed from intraday high 163.74 to low 157.98, closing 160.19 (-312 pips, -1.91%). Largest daily USDJPY range since August 2024 carry-unwind. Nikkei reported NY Fed rate check ahead of the move; five of five forensic signals point to MOF intervention despite no official confirmation. DXY -61 pips to 100.14 (broke 100.50 handle). 10Y +6.7bp to 4.6724 (yields up while dollar down - the specific decoupling that confirms intervention flow). Q2 GDP advance +2.1% in-line. Framework: intervention buys time not direction; historical pattern is 2-4 week consolidation before pre-intervention level returns.
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A plain-English guide to reading a contradictory Fed message.
Fed messages become contradictory for four reasons: committee dispersion smoothed over in prepared statement, Chair inexperience with format, genuine policy uncertainty, deliberate optionality. When statement and Q&A conflict, Q&A wins the market's interpretation (unscripted, specific to hypotheticals, hedging patterns readable). Five Q&A dimensions carry highest signal: verb tense, bar-setting language, time-frame specificity, dispersion acknowledgments, referent selection. Warsh's Wednesday: four of five read dovish, explaining the market's dovish interpretation despite hawkish written text. Term-premium credibility discount showed in 30-year yield hitting cycle high.
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FOMC 9-3 hold. Warsh Q&A read dovish despite hawkish written statement.
Vote 9-3 to hold at 3.50-3.75% (three dissents FOR a hike, most hawkish dissents in a hold since 2019). Dot plot median: 3.80% end-2026 (25bp hike this year), 3.60% end-2027. 9 of 18 dots support a hike this year. Prepared statement hawkish ("prices are too high"); Q&A dovish (Warsh de-emphasized dot plot, high bar for hike, soft language on inflation trajectory). Multiple economists called the presentation "internally contradictory." Market decisive: DXY -63 pips, EUR/USD +81, gold +$60, USDJPY -56, Brent +7.29%. 30-year yield hit highest since 2007 on term-premium credibility discount. Working thesis reweights toward dovish hold (30%, up from 20%).
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A plain-English guide to JOLTS vs NFP: different labor-market signals.
Both series called labor-market data. NFP is flow (net payroll change) with 2-3 week lag, released first Friday 8:30 AM ET, moves markets 40-100 pips on first minute. JOLTS is stock (unfilled job openings) with 4-6 week lag, released monthly 10:00 AM ET, moves markets 10-25 pips. NFP timely and comprehensive; JOLTS later but structural. When they align, aggregate labor signal is strong. When they conflict, muted reaction because Fed itself needs more data. Tuesday's JOLTS softening softened FedWatch hike probability into Wednesday.
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Tuesday: pre-FOMC positioning. JOLTS soft, Brent extended lower.
Pre-FOMC positioning session ahead of Wednesday's July 29-30 meeting. JOLTS 7.42M vs 7.55M consensus (labor demand softening). Consumer Confidence 99.6 in-line. Brent CFD -3.85% to $82.03 (second session of Iran-de-escalation unwind). Gold -$48 to $4,025 as safe-haven premium partially unwound. 10Y -4.5bp to 4.60 on soft JOLTS. DXY -10 pips to 101.38. USDJPY held 163.87. FedWatch hike probability walked back from Monday's 34% to approximately 22%. Setup: dovish-leaning inputs plus Wednesday's FOMC as the resolution point.
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A plain-English guide to reading a geopolitical risk-premium unwind.
Geopolitical risk premiums build in discrete steps and unwind in a compressed single-session repricing. The unwind is typically 2-3x more compressed than the build because positioning is all offside simultaneously. This piece is the framework: three-phase structure (initial repricing Day 0, consolidation Days 1-5, resolution Weeks 2-4), three second-order effects (breakeven repricing, central-bank reaction function shifts, cross-asset positioning unwinds), why oil moves outsized in the Day 0 window, what to watch in Phase 2.
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Iran de-escalation. Brent crashed -8%. Hike risk doubled to 34%.
Weekend Iran de-escalation (Trump against major escalation, both sides paused). Brent CFD -8.15% to $85.32 (biggest single-day fall in over two months). 10Y softened -3.1bp to 4.6465; gold +$20 to $4,073 (safe-haven flow offsetting real-yield weight); DXY held cycle highs at 101.48; USD/JPY held 163.78 (fourth consecutive close above 163 without MoF intervention). Notably: FedWatch hike probability doubled from 16.6% Friday to 34% Monday despite the oil unwind; the labor and demand-side data continue to drive the Fed reaction function, not oil. Working thesis: hawkish-tilt-with-hike-risk holds at 45%.
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A plain-English guide to reading FOMC-day tape.
The FOMC statement lands 2:00 PM ET Wednesday; press conference 2:30 PM ET; SEP (quarterly meetings only) at 2:00 PM ET alongside the statement. This piece is the framework for reading FOMC-day tape end to end. What actually lands at 2:00 PM ET (three documents); reading the statement (three signal-carrying change categories); reading the dots (median dot, dispersion, longer-run, growth-unemployment consistency); reading the press conference (opening statement variance, Q&A hedging patterns, committee-dispersion acknowledgment); three-phase tape-timing patterns; the reversal risk over Day 1-5 as post-meeting speeches reveal dispersion. Framework for the July 29-30 meeting.
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Friday: yields softened, Brent pulled back, dollar held. Consolidation into FOMC week.
10Y -2.25bp to 4.6775, first close below 4.70 after Thursday's cycle high. Gold +$6 to $4,053 (held Thursday's break level, did not reclaim). Brent CFD -2.09% to $92.89 on partial de-escalation read plus weekly-gain profit-taking. DXY flat at 101.46 (cycle highs). USD/JPY held 163.85 (third consecutive daily close above 163 without MoF intervention). Michigan Sentiment Final 68.2; Durable Goods +1.2% vs +0.4% consensus. CFTC print showed EUR net long approaching 75th percentile. FOMC now Wednesday.
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A plain-English guide to gold in a rising real-yield environment.
Gold has one primary rate-sensitive driver: real yields. This piece is the framework for reading gold when real yields decisively rise. Nominal-vs-real decomposition (four sources of nominal yield rise, only some weigh on gold); the Tuesday-through-Thursday tape as a live case study (breakevens rose then stalled, real yields rose only on Day 3); positioning amplification (Thursday's -$86 was 7-9x the mechanical prediction); four-day follow-through pattern; the three complications (central-bank demand, safe-haven flow, positioning extremes).
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Yields hit 4.70% since January 2025. Gold finally cracked, -2.09%. USD/JPY 163.84.
10Y +4.5bp to 4.70%, the highest daily close since January 2025. Gold -$86 to $4,047 as breakevens stalled while nominals kept rising, decisively lifting real yields. Brent CFD spot +4.65% to $94.88; front-month ICE Brent futures $100.69 per Reuters. DXY +32 pips to 101.43. USD/JPY 163.84 (new 40-year high, ~3.5 yen above 2024 MoF intervention zone). ECB paused with dovish Lagarde language; US claims 213k vs 225k consensus. Working thesis reweights toward hawkish tail (45% probability).
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A plain-English guide to reading Treasury auction demand.
Every US Treasury auction has a canonical set of four numbers: high yield vs when-issued, bid-to-cover ratio, indirect bidder share, direct bidder share. Read together they tell you whether the auction cleared with strong demand, weak demand, or somewhere in between. This piece sets out what each number means, how to combine them (strong auction, weak auction, dealer-backstop mixed, foreign-vs-domestic rotation), and the specific FX and rate implications of each configuration.
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Wednesday: Brent and gold both extended. Yields held above 4.65%.
Brent CFD spot +$1.28 to $90.67 (front-month settlement ~$94 per Kitco). Gold +$53 to $4,133 (Kitco reported an intraday spot high of $4,160). 10Y +2.8bp to 4.6555 (first close above 4.65 handle). DXY -6 pips to 101.11; USD/JPY cooled -10 pips from Tuesday's 40-year high but held above 163. The 20-year Treasury reopening was soft-but-not-disastrous: bid-to-cover 2.61x vs trailing 2.71x, indirect share 62% vs trailing 68%. Foreign demand softening at higher yields; supply absorbed but with dealer backstop lifting.
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A plain-English guide to pricing a Fed rate-hike tail risk.
CME FedWatch hike probability moved 4→16.6% Tuesday. This piece sets out what the number actually measures (fed-funds-futures implied path, not market opinion), the three channels through which it flows into cross-asset pricing (rates, FX, gold), where the pricing usually comes from (hot data, supply-side inflation shock, Fed speeches, foreign central bank action), and the three possible FOMC-day resolutions (hike happens, dovish hold, hawkish hold). Framework for reading pre-FOMC positioning.
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Hike risk enters the tape. Yields to 4.63%, USD/JPY to a 40-year high.
CME FedWatch hike probability for the July 30 FOMC quadrupled from 4% to 16.6% inside a single session. 10Y yield +5.5bp to 4.63% (highest since mid-May). Gold +$71 to $4,081 as breakevens rose faster than nominals. DXY +27 pips to 101.17. USD/JPY at 163.19, the highest print since 1986 and roughly 3 yen above the 2024 MoF intervention zone. The unusual configuration (yields up + gold up + dollar up) is textbook stagflation-pricing: two-sided uncertainty priced simultaneously.
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A plain-English guide to the Fed communications blackout window.
For the ten days before every FOMC meeting, senior Federal Reserve officials stop speaking publicly about monetary policy. This piece sets out what the blackout is (a self-imposed policy since 2005), why it exists (reduce information asymmetry, focus attention on the statement, reduce internal signaling risk), how markets behave inside it (rates thin, FX headline-driven, data prints outsized), and what typically happens on reopen (post-meeting speeches surface committee dispersion). Framework for reading the current July 18-31 window.
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Monday: Brent extended on the ninth night of strikes. Macro quiet into Fed week.
US Central Command completed a ninth consecutive night of Iran strikes; Iranian FM Baghaei made mid-morning diplomacy remarks that partially reversed the escalation premium. Brent +0.88% to $87.51 (intraday $89+ before Baghaei). Gold +0.36% to $4,010 above the reclaimed $4,000 handle. DXY +15 pips to 100.90 (effectively unchanged). 10Y +2.6bp to 4.57. The Fed communications blackout opened Saturday July 18; macro tape now consolidates on non-Fed drivers into the July 30 meeting.
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A plain-English guide to shipping chokepoints and oil supply risk.
Roughly 60 percent of world oil moves by sea, funneled through five narrow passages. Hormuz (20 mbpd, no full commercial bypass), Bab-el-Mandeb / Red Sea (6-7 mbpd oil plus most Asia-Europe container flow), Suez, Malacca (25 mbpd), Turkish Straits. This piece sets out what each carries, the historical premium a threat produces, the market signals (Brent-WTI spread, options skew, tanker rates), and why the Iran-retaliation story reaches oil specifically through Hormuz and the Red Sea rather than through Iran’s own barrels.
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Iran round two. Brent bid, gold reclaimed $4,000, dollar quiet.
Iran retaliated Friday against the sixth night of US strikes with attacks on US targets across the region and instructions to Houthi forces on Red Sea shipping. Brent added $2.67 (+3.18%) to $86.75, extending the weekly gain to +14%. Gold reclaimed the $4,000 handle within one session of Thursday’s break, closing +$31 to $4,017. DXY held Thursday’s reassertion at 100.75 (+7 pips), USD/JPY 162.41, 10Y softened 1.9bp to 4.546 on the safe-haven bid. Round two of the Iran shock extends the geopolitical premium rather than resolving it.
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Retail sales firm, claims low. The dollar reasserted. Gold pierced $4,000.
June headline retail sales printed +0.6% month-over-month, well above the +0.1% consensus. Weekly jobless claims came in at 221k, below the 235k expectation. The firm demand-side data pushed back on the dovish PPI take. The 10-year retraced 2bp back to 4.56, DXY added 23 pips to 100.68, EUR/USD gave back 25 pips to 1.1445, USD/JPY reclaimed 162.38, gold sold off 1.8% to $3,986 (the first sub-$4,000 close since June 24), Brent softened 0.8% to $84.08. The dovish framework got tested and partially unwound.
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A plain-English guide to reading retail sales against a disinflation print.
Retail sales measures consumer demand. When it comes in firm the day after a soft CPI/PPI combination, markets have to reconcile: is inflation falling because demand is cooling, or is it falling despite demand holding up? The two interpretations point to different Fed paths. This piece sets out the four components that matter, the control-group aggregate, and how to read a firm-retail-sales-into-soft-inflation combination.
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PPI cooled. The rate market extended dovish. The dollar cracked.
June headline PPI printed at 0.0% month-over-month, below the 0.2% consensus. Core PPI landed at the same 0.0% mark. Two consecutive dovish prints out of the CPI-PPI window pushed the OIS curve toward earlier easing. The 10-year drifted 3bp lower to 4.54, DXY broke through 100.50 support to close at 100.45 (the lowest print of the July run), EUR/USD reclaimed 1.147, USD/JPY finally softened 12 pips to 162.08. Yesterday’s Warsh-hawkish/CPI-dovish split resolved dovish overnight.
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A plain-English guide to reading PPI against CPI.
PPI arrives a day after CPI in most months and delivers the producer-side check on the consumer-price read. When PPI confirms the CPI direction, the disinflation or reinflation signal earns weight. When it contradicts, the market has to figure out which side of the supply chain is doing the moving. This piece sets out the mechanics, the components that matter, and how to read a same-week PPI-CPI combination.
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CPI cooled. Warsh stayed hawkish. The market split the difference.
June core CPI came in flat month-over-month at 2.6% year-on-year, materially below the 2.9% consensus and below the May reading. Chair Warsh’s congressional testimony an hour later refused to soften the "prices too high" framing: "That is not my view" on mission-accomplished, "no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation." The rate market went dovish (10Y -3bp), the currency market went mildly dovish (DXY -36 pips), the equity market went bullish, and Brent kept extending the Iran-shock rally. Multiple divergent responses to the same catalyst window.
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A plain-English guide to reading a soft CPI against a hawkish Fed.
A dovish inflation surprise usually gets dovish central-bank language a few weeks later. When the chair delivers hawkish language on the same day as a soft print, markets have to price the conflict. This piece sets out the three specific patterns that emerge, how each resolves historically, and what to watch for in the days following. Warsh’s Tuesday testimony against the soft June CPI is the current example.
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US strikes Iran again. Brent surged 9%, dollar firmed, gold broke $4,000.
Fourth US strike on Iran in a week, Iranian attack on a Cyprus-flagged container ship, Iran declaration that the Strait of Hormuz is closed. Brent surged 9.2% to $82.83, dollar firmed on both the oil-inflation channel and the safe-haven bid (DXY 101.28), 10Y pushed to 4.61 (+5bp), USD/JPY reclaimed 162.44, gold broke below $4,000. Tomorrow’s CPI and Warsh testimony now land into a materially different macro backdrop than the Sunday piece assumed.
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A plain-English guide to how oil shocks transmit to inflation and rates.
Brent surged 9% Monday on renewed US-Iran conflict over the Strait of Hormuz. Oil shocks translate to headline inflation within weeks, core inflation within months, and rate expectations within days. This piece sets out the four transmission channels, the specific lags each carries, and how markets typically price the transmission before the data confirms it.
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The week the hawkish read landed but didn’t extend. Next week: CPI and Warsh.
FOMC minutes delivered the hawkish read the market pre-positioned into. USD/JPY caught up to the differential Wednesday (+65 pips), then gave the move back Thursday-Friday to close at 161.69. 10Y held +8bp on the week at 4.56. Brent led the tape (+5.6% weekly). The rate market repriced meaningfully; the FX market did not. Next week tests both: Tuesday CPI, Warsh testimony, Wednesday PPI, Thursday retail sales.
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A plain-English guide to reading Fed Chair congressional testimony.
Tuesday brings Chair Warsh’s first congressional testimony, before the House Financial Services Committee. Testimonies are the most-watched Fed communication event outside the FOMC decision itself. This piece sets out the four sections that carry policy signal, the specific question types to watch for, and how testimony language compares to statement and minutes language across the last three chairs.
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Minutes delivered hawkish. USD/JPY finally followed yields.
June FOMC minutes released 9-8-1 on the projected rate direction, with inflation risks tilted to the upside and AI infrastructure named as a new supply-side pressure. 10Y jumped 6bp to 4.57. USD/JPY added 65 pips to 162.54, resolving the yen-side leak that had held it below the rate differential all week. Gold pulled back 1.6%. Brent rallied 6.5% on a separate OPEC+ signal. The framework read from Tuesday paid.
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A plain-English guide to reading a split Fed committee.
The June 2026 FOMC came out 9-8-1 on the projected direction of rates by year-end. That is the most divided committee since the taper-tantrum era. This piece sets out how to read a split committee: which votes matter, how splits resolve, the historical base rates on convergence direction, and why the median dot can be a poor summary when the underlying distribution is bimodal.
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Yields into FOMC minutes. USD/JPY won’t follow.
US 10Y pushed to 4.51, up 4bp on the session and its highest print since April. The move is straight pre-catalyst positioning ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC minutes release, which will show how Chair Warsh managed a June committee where nine of eighteen officials projected a hike. USD/JPY closed 18 pips lower despite the yield support: the yen-side leak from the Wednesday BoJ meeting is priced into the tape.
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A plain-English guide to reading FOMC minutes.
The Federal Reserve publishes minutes of its policy meetings three weeks after each decision. The minutes are the most detailed record we get of how the committee thinks — but they require careful reading. This piece sets out the six sections that matter, the language patterns that reveal dissent, and the specific words that shift market pricing when they appear or vanish.
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USD/JPY retraced most of Thursday’s cascade. The positioning read holds.
USD/JPY closed Monday at 162.10, up 145 pips from Thursday’s 160.65 cascade low and roughly 76% of the way back to Wednesday’s pre-cascade 162.55 print. That retrace is at the high end of typical positioning-cascade shape and outside the range interventions typically produce. DXY held at 100.84 unchanged. The retrace is JPY-specific, not USD-driven, and the MoF is still silent.
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A plain-English guide to retrace patterns: cascade, intervention, and regime shift.
Large single-session FX moves retrace in three characteristic shapes. Cascades retrace fast and partial (30-50% within 2-3 sessions). Interventions retrace slow and shallow (20-40% over weeks). Regime shifts barely retrace at all. Reading which shape the retrace takes identifies which driver was in charge of the original move — a diagnosis the tape itself provides.
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USD/JPY flushed 190 pips intraday. Either the MoF acted, or the market did it for them.
USD/JPY travelled from a 162.55 open down to a 160.65 Tokyo-session low before closing at 161.46, a single Asian-session flush five hours before an NFP print of +57k against 115k consensus. DXY broke to 100.97, gold ripped to 4,127, and the 10-year gave back a basis point. The rate leg does not explain the pre-NFP move. The two candidate drivers are unsterilised MoF intervention or a positioning cascade. Which one was in charge changes the trade for next week.
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A plain-English guide to positioning-liquidation events.
A move too big and too fast to be explained by the macro tape is a positioning event, not a fundamental one. This piece explains the mechanics: what a liquidation cascade looks like from the option-flow and stop-cluster side, how to identify one in real time, and why the direction of the eventual retrace is not the same as the direction of the initial move.
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Yields to 4.46, Brent to 71. The dollar firms into a divergent tape.
The 10-year pushed another 3bp to 4.463, a new high in the current run. DXY closed at 101.41 (also new). Brent broke to 71.25, a new 90-day low. The commodity leg says demand is fading; the rate leg says the Fed is not close to cutting. Both dollar-supportive individually; taken together the setup is asymmetric.
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A plain-English guide to the Bank of Japan policy toolkit.
The BoJ policy rate is the headline; it is not the tool. This piece sets out the five instruments the desk actually deploys: the QQE framework, YCC, the Rinban schedule, the JGB purchase cap, and unsterilised FX intervention conducted for the MoF. The seven pressure points in that stack, and what each signals when the Bank moves them.
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USD/JPY through 162 as yields push. The MoF still says nothing.
USD/JPY closed at 162.64, a new 90-day high and 280 pips through the June 18 break of 161. The 10-year pushed to 4.43 (+4bp). Gold made another new low at 4,006. Every leg of the carry trade got paid on the same session. The MoF has now been silent for six trading days past the point last cycle triggered step-six language.
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A plain-English guide to yield differentials and FX carry.
The two-year cash-rate gap is the single cleanest driver of every G10 cross. This piece explains why the swap-implied differential (not the spot-rate gap) is what matters, how carry decomposes into hedged and unhedged components, and why the 2026 yen carry has been the trade of the year.
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Gold tested 4,000 intraday. USD/JPY pressed toward 162.
Gold printed a $4,002 intraday low before recovering to a $4,015 close, on the day the 10-year rallied 2.7% on the week and the dollar gave back a touch. Both moves should have helped the metal; the round number was tested anyway. Meanwhile USD/JPY made a new high beyond the post-FOMC peak with the MoF still silent. Two moves, two different stories.
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A plain-English guide to gold as a macro signal.
What gold actually prices: the real-yield identity, the dollar inverse, the central-bank bid, and the risk-off impulse. When these drivers agree the gold print is informative; when they disagree the disagreement is the signal. The framework that turns a single price into a regime read.
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Core PCE printed hot. The dollar didn’t extend.
May core PCE landed at 3.4% year-on-year, up from 3.3% and the highest since October 2023. The bond market rallied anyway, the dollar gave back a touch, gold drifted lower. The hot print was already priced; the next move is in next week’s data sequence.
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A plain-English guide to the Taylor rule.
The published policy rule that benchmarks the federal funds rate against inflation and the output gap, the four parameter choices that matter, what the rule recommends today against the 3.4% core PCE print, and why Warsh has hinted the next framework may make explicit reference to it.
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DXY consolidates. Claims confirmed labour-market firm.
Initial jobless claims fell to 222k; the labour-market read held the hawkish framework. DXY closed at 101.51 after a small pullback from Wednesday’s 101.58 peak. The 10-year held its bond-rally gains. Setup into Friday’s core PCE is clean: the dollar is consolidating, the data is firming, the catalyst is the inflation print.
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A plain-English guide to nowcasting.
How the Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow models work, what daily inputs feed them, why they tend to beat consensus forecasts by 30-40bp on release day, and how to read them against the upcoming print.
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Brent breaks $75. Bonds rally. Dollar still strong.
Brent collapsed to $73.38, the 10-year rallied 9bp to 4.40%, gold collapsed through $4,050. DXY pushed to 101.58, the week’s high. Three asset classes pricing a sharp shift in the inflation outlook; the dollar still pricing the rate differential. The decomposition matters.
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A plain-English guide to the oil market.
Brent vs WTI, the curve structure (contango vs backwardation), what OPEC+ actually controls and what it doesn’t, the geopolitical-premium overlay, and why a $73 print after a $93 peak is the cleanest single read of the Iran de-escalation flow.
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Dollar extends. Japan looks at its war chest.
DXY closed at 101.37, USD/JPY held 161.60. Tokyo announced a review of its $1.3 trillion FX reserves "war chest"; the draft strategy report is the strongest signal yet that MoF is preparing for sustained intervention. The carry trade kept working anyway.
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A plain-English guide to central bank FX reserves.
What "war chest" means in practice: the $1.3 trillion Japan holds, how it is composed, what fraction is actually deployable for intervention, and the constraints that make the headline number misleading.
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DXY hits 101. Asia tests MoF’s resolve.
The Monday open extended the post-FOMC bid. DXY closed at the 101.00 line, USD/JPY at 161.57, gold at fresh lows. Tokyo opens tomorrow with the yen pair 60 pips above Friday’s close and MoF still silent through the weekend. The carry trade is winning.
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A plain-English guide to real yields.
How a real yield is defined (nominal minus breakeven), the difference between TIPS-derived and survey-derived measures, why real yields drive FX more than nominal yields, and where the current US 10-year real yield at roughly 2.0% places the dollar regime.
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End of week: MoF talked, didn’t act. The new regime held.
Kihara repeated the step-five formulation. The yen erased all of the April 30 intervention gains. USD/JPY trades above 161, DXY around 100.8, gold at fresh lows. Japan’s intervention dilemma is structural now: the rate differential is too wide for verbal escalation alone to bind.
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A plain-English guide to the carry trade.
How a carry trade is constructed, the math behind the yield differential and the FX-volatility cost, why USD/JPY is the canonical example, and the historical pattern of why carry trades end (rate convergence, vol spike, or intervention).
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USD/JPY broke 161. Japan escalated to step-five language.
The post-FOMC dollar bid extended rather than faded. DXY closed at 100.83, USD/JPY at 161.30. Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary used the "respond appropriately at any time" formulation that historically precedes operations by days. Warsh said forward guidance is "not well suited" to current conditions.
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A plain-English guide to monetary policy frameworks.
What a "framework" actually is, the 2020 FAIT regime and why it lasted only five years, the alternatives (Taylor rule, price-level targeting, NGDP targeting), and what Warsh’s "not well suited" comment yesterday tells us about where the framework review is headed.
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Warsh delivered hawkish. DXY finally broke 100.
Median 2026 dot to 3.8% from March’s 3.4%, turning the next move from a cut into a hike. Median PCE projection to 3.6% from 2.7%. Statement cut to 130 words from 341. Warsh declined to submit a dot. DXY ripped through 100 to close at 100.35; the round number we flagged for two weeks finally fell.
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A plain-English guide to financial conditions indices.
How the Goldman, Chicago Fed, and Bloomberg FCIs are built, why the Fed treats them as the policy-transmission channel, and what a 50-basis-point move in the index actually does to real-economy outcomes.
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FOMC day one of two: the tape positioned dovish.
Ahead of tomorrow’s 2pm decision and SEP, hold is priced at 97%. The 10-year rallied 4bp to 4.43%, DXY dropped to 99.54 (fifth sub-100 close, the lowest of the run), Brent collapsed another $4 to $78.66, gold firmed to $4,340. The cross-asset board is positioned for a dovish SEP. If Warsh delivers hawkish, there is real room for reversal.
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A plain-English guide to forward guidance.
How the Fed communicates intent through statement language, the SEP, and the press conference, the four eras of guidance (qualitative, calendar, threshold, state-contingent), and the language hooks markets actually trade.
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FOMC eve: what’s priced and what isn’t.
Markets price 86% probability of a hold and a median 2026 dot at 4.00%. The dot plot is the catalyst. DXY at 99.66, fourth sub-100 close. Brent extended its slide to $83 on Iran de-escalation, taking the energy-driven inflation channel off Warsh’s table. What the meeting can actually price.
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A plain-English guide to r-star, the neutral rate.
What r-star actually is, the three models (Laubach-Williams, Holston-Laubach-Williams, Lubik-Matthes) that estimate it, why the longer-run dot is essentially r-star plus 2 percent, and why Warsh’s drift on this number is the most durable signal in the SEP.
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End of week: Michigan unmoored. DXY couldn’t break.
Michigan 5-year inflation expectations jumped 40 basis points to 3.9%, the survey-based "unmooring" signal that the breakevens piece flagged. DXY closed at 99.81, the third sub-100 close. Brent collapsed to $86 on Iran de-escalation chatter. Warsh’s first FOMC Tuesday lands into a mixed cross-asset board.
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A plain-English guide to inflation expectations surveys.
The four surveys central banks watch — Michigan, NY Fed SCE, the Conference Board, and the SPF — what each one asks, why the Fed weights them differently, and the "anchored vs unmoored" framing that today’s Michigan long-run jump just put on the table.
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DXY tested 100 again. The round number won.
DXY spiked to 100.23 intraday before reversing to close at 99.93, the second sub-100 close of the week. The round number is doing real technical work; the post-CPI follow-through that the rate-differential story implied did not arrive.
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Headline CPI 4.2%. Core under-shot. DXY took the headline.
May headline CPI printed 4.2% year-on-year, the highest since April 2023. Core ticked to 2.9% with monthly core only +0.2%, below the 0.3% consensus. The Iran-driven energy shock did most of the headline work. DXY closed at 100.05, holding above the line.
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A plain-English guide to CPI components and the supercore.
The four categories that make up the CPI basket, the OER trick that makes shelter dominate the index, why the "supercore" (services ex-housing) is the cleanest demand read, and the math behind the sub-component weights.
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Tuesday auctions delivered. Markets coiled into CPI.
Both the 3-year and 10-year Treasury auctions priced cleanly with no meaningful tail. Indirect bidders took 70% of the 10-year, the cleanest foreign-demand read since the spring. DXY consolidated 100.0, EUR/USD held its post-NFP range, all sitting on hands for Wednesday’s CPI.
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After the shock, no give-back. CPI Wednesday.
The Friday NFP move held the weekend without retracement. DXY at 99.90, USD/JPY 160.31, no MoF intervention overnight. December hike odds ticked further to 70%. CPI Wednesday is the next test.
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A plain-English guide to inflation breakevens.
How TIPS-vs-nominal gives you a market-implied inflation expectation in one number, why the 5y5y forward is the cleanest read of long-run anchoring, and the construction math behind both, written for the CPI Wednesday and the SEP in two weeks.
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The OIS curve repriced. From cuts to hike risk in five sessions.
In late April markets priced 50 basis points of cuts by year-end. Now the year-end fed-funds path implies a 60% probability of a hike. That is a ~100bp swing in expected-rate space in roughly six weeks, with most of it in the last five sessions.
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A plain-English guide to the SEP and the dot plot.
What the Summary of Economic Projections actually is, how the dot plot is assembled, the difference between the median dot and the consensus call, and why Warsh’s first SEP at the 16-17 June meeting is the most-watched piece of paper of the year.
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End of week: the thesis missed. Here is the post-mortem.
NFP +172k against an 85k consensus. March and April revised up a combined 93k. DXY at the 100 line. The data-not-dots call did not survive contact with the data. What the thread got right, what it got wrong, and where the chain goes from here.
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A plain-English guide to the NFP report.
Two surveys, one release: the establishment survey that counts jobs, the household survey that counts people, the birth-death model that adjusts for new firms, and the benchmark revisions that quietly rewrite the picture once a year.
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USD/JPY broke 160. Powell pushed back. NFP tomorrow.
The yen broke through MoF’s 2024 intervention zone, Powell issued his first post-term public statement defending Fed independence, and DXY held the top of the range into Friday’s payrolls. The dollar thread is one print from a regime call.
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A plain-English guide to FX intervention.
When Japan’s MoF actually steps in, the difference between verbal and actual intervention, the 2022 and 2024 precedents, and what to watch in the price action around USD/JPY 160.
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Two more upside prints. The thesis is in trouble.
ADP printed 122k against 117k consensus. ISM Services held 53.6. DXY extended to 99.45, the top of the May range. Three upside surprises in three days is no longer noise. The data-not-dots call is being seriously tested.
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A plain-English guide to ADP vs nonfarm payrolls.
Two payroll measures, three structural differences, and the rule of thumb that lets you translate an ADP surprise into an expected NFP reaction. The math behind why they diverge by 100k or more in a single month.
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JOLTS sent a mixed signal. The dollar held its ISM gains.
Openings jumped to 7.6 million, hires fell to 5.1, quits flat at 3.0. The print is the textbook signature of a frozen labour market: vacancies up, matching down. DXY held 99 but did not extend.
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A plain-English guide to the Beveridge curve.
The vacancy-unemployment relationship that sits behind every JOLTS release, the post-pandemic outward shift and what is reversing it, and the u* = √(uv) shorthand for reading the curve in one line.
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ISM came in hot. The dollar took it.
Manufacturing PMI printed 54.0 in May, the highest since 2022, with new orders surging to 56.8. DXY bounced back through 99, bonds sold off, Brent ripped. The first contrarian print in the data-not-dots thread is on the tape.
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A plain-English guide to economic surprise indices.
How the Citigroup CESI is built, why FX desks watch it more than the prints themselves, and the math behind translating an upside ISM into the index move it produces.
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End of week: the data thesis is in the price now.
A week ago the dollar was at 99.32 and the call was that data, not policy, would move it. Five sessions, two reference pieces and one PCE print later, DXY closed at 98.94 with the bond rally and the correlation matrix in agreement. Where the thread stands going into next week.
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Core PCE ticked up. The dollar didn’t.
April Core PCE printed 3.3% YoY against 3.2% prior. DXY closed lower, the 10-year held its rally. A move in the wrong direction on a hawkish print is the cleanest read on how positioning was sitting going in.
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A plain-English guide to PCE vs CPI.
Why the Fed reads PCE instead of CPI, what the trimmed-mean variant adds (and why the new Chair prefers it), and how to translate a print in one measure into the other.
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DXY finally moved. The data side took the wheel.
DXY broke 99 ahead of the Q1 GDP second estimate and the 7-year auction. Brent kept sliding, gold caught a bid, the 10-year rallied further. The data-not-dots thesis just printed.
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A plain-English guide to the dollar smile.
Stephen Jen’s three-regime framework for the dollar, the math behind the smile shape, and where DXY actually sits today between left-side risk-off, middle-trough underperformance, and right-side US exceptionalism.
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Confidence beat consensus, bonds rallied, dollar shrugged.
May Conference Board confidence printed 93.1 against a 92 consensus. The 10-year rallied 7 basis points. DXY closed flat. The data-side thesis is being expressed in rates now, not in FX.
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A plain-English guide to the term premium.
Decomposing a 10-year Treasury yield into the expected path of policy and the term premium, the math from the ACM model, and why the bucket has gone from deeply negative to firmly positive in this cycle.
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A new Chair, a record-low Michigan print, and the dollar still hasn’t moved.
Warsh was sworn in as the 17th FOMC Chairman. May Michigan sentiment was revised to 44.8, a record low. DXY at 99.24 has shrugged at both.
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A plain-English guide to COT positioning, with corn as the case.
How the CFTC Commitments of Traders report is built, the math that turns a raw net-long number into a percentile, and what May’s corn print is saying about a crowded long.
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Three sessions on: the dollar story is still about the data.
DXY held the line into the long weekend. The OIS path is unchanged. The cross-asset correlation matrix is doing the talking now.
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A plain-English guide to currency correlations.
What the correlation between two markets measures, how to compute it in five lines of arithmetic, and the one cell of today’s dollar matrix that’s gone the wrong way.
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EUR positioning has caught up to the dollar’s slide.
CFTC net longs in the euro have rebuilt from a 1-year low in March to an 18-month high. The easy carry on this side is gone.
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The dollar is weaker on the data, not the dots.
DXY has drifted off the March highs while OIS-implied policy is little changed. The slide is in the activity prints, not the Fed reaction function.
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Why the curve un-inverted without a recession.
Term-premium normalisation explains most of the bear-steepening. Growth surprise indices remain soft.
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A plain-English guide to OIS.
What overnight-index swaps measure, what they do not, and how to read them against fed-funds futures.
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