Wed: the 20-year drew 2.73 cover, nothing in the plan triggered, and natural gas fell to 2.77.
Written Thursday October 22, covering Wednesday October 21; the plan was committed Tuesday. The 20-year reopening cleared at 5.469 percent with 2.73 cover and 58.2 percent indirect (TreasuryDirect), inside the no-call band; Brent finished 0.6 percent higher, also no call. Grade: nothing triggered. The 10-year rose 2.9 basis points, all in breakevens (T10YIE 2.37, FRED). Crude stocks fell 3.1 million barrels (EIA); median weekly pay rose 1.5 percent against 3.5 percent CPI (BLS). Gas fell 7.3 percent on mild forecasts (PGJ).
Written Thursday October 22, covering Wednesday October 21. The plan graded below was committed Tuesday October 20, before Wednesday's data. Every Wednesday price here was pulled Wednesday evening; no Thursday price or result is used. The $13 billion 20-year reopening drew a bid-to-cover of 2.73, inside the range where the plan made no call. Brent finished the 4:00 PM bar 0.6 percent above Tuesday's, also inside the no-call band. Grade: nothing triggered, no hits, no misses. Under the surface, the 10-year's 2.9 basis point rise was inflation compensation, not real yield, and natural gas fell another 7.3 percent to 2.775.
This continues Tuesday's note, where the 30-year rallied 4.7 basis points and natural gas settled below $3 for the first time since October 1. Wednesday took back a third of the 30-year move and extended the gas fall.
What the data said
- 20-year bond reopening, 1:00 PM ET. $13 billion of the 19-year 10-month bond (CUSIP 912810UX4) at a high yield of 5.469 percent, bid-to-cover 2.73. Indirect bidders took 58.2 percent of competitive awards ($7.50 billion of $12.90 billion), direct bidders 31.6 percent and primary dealers 10.3 percent. The median yield was 5.415 percent and 60.05 percent of bids at the high yield were filled (source: TreasuryDirect auction record). In September the same bond cleared at 5.420 percent with 2.57 cover and 52.5 percent indirect. Across the last seven 20-year auctions the indirect share ranged from 52.5 to 71.6 percent, so Wednesday sat in the lower half. We could not find a when-issued yield from a source we could check, so we do not state a tail. For a reference point only: Treasury's end-of-day 20-year par yield was 5.47 percent (Treasury daily yield curve), essentially at the high yield.
- EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, 10:30 AM ET (week ending October 16). Commercial crude inventories fell 3.1 million barrels to 412.5 million, 3 percent below the five-year average. Gasoline fell 3.0 million barrels; distillates rose 1.7 million. Refineries ran at 93.4 percent of capacity; crude imports fell 291,000 barrels a day to 5.8 million (source: EIA WPSR summary). Investrade put the expected crude draw at 820,000 barrels; we did not check another source.
- Usual weekly earnings, third quarter, 10:00 AM ET. Median weekly earnings of 122.2 million full-time wage and salary workers were $1,232, up 1.5 percent on the year, against a 3.5 percent rise in CPI-U over the same period (source: BLS Usual Weekly Earnings, October 21, 2026). Nominal earnings growth of 1.5 percent against 3.5 percent inflation means the median full-time worker's weekly pay lost about 2 percent in purchasing power over the year, by our arithmetic. Not seasonally adjusted, and not graded.
The tape
| Market | Tue Oct 20 reference | Wed Oct 21 (4 PM / close) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Y yield | 5.117% | 5.146% | +2.9 bp |
| 30Y yield | 5.425% | 5.439% | +1.4 bp |
| 5Y yield | 4.935% | 4.972% | +3.7 bp |
| DXY (4 PM ET) | 101.701 | 101.693 | -0.01 |
| Gold (GC=F, 4 PM ET) | 4,142.5 | 4,159.5 | +17.0 |
| USD/JPY (4 PM ET) | 158.14 | 158.13 | -0.01 |
| EUR/USD (4 PM ET) | 1.1240 | 1.1237 | -0.0003 |
| Brent (BZ=F, 4 PM ET) | 109.12 | 109.73 | +0.56% |
| Natural gas (NG=F, 4 PM ET) | 2.993 | 2.775 | -7.3% |
| S&P 500 | 7,712.57 | 7,757.17 | +0.58% |
Sources: Yahoo Finance query1, using the plan's conventions: hourly 4:00 PM ET bar for DXY, gold, USD/JPY, EUR/USD, Brent and natural gas; daily close for ^TNX, ^TYX, ^FVX and ^GSPC. Reference levels are the plan's, as committed. The Nasdaq rose 1.05 percent to 26,702.86 and the Dow 0.69 percent to 52,856.09 (Yahoo ^IXIC, ^DJI).
Grading the plan
The plan had two legs. Leg A classified the 20-year bid-to-cover: weak at 2.52 or lower (30-year up at least 2 basis points to 5.445 percent or more, 10-year above 5.117), strong at 2.76 or higher (30-year at or below 5.405, 10-year below 5.117), no call from 2.53 to 2.75. Leg B classified Brent's 4:00 PM bar against Tuesday's 109.12: oil down at 105.85 or lower (T5YIE at or below 2.37), oil up at 112.39 or higher (T5YIE at or above 2.41, gold above 4,142.5). Classification: bid-to-cover 2.73, neither; Brent 109.73, neither.
| Line in the map | Expected | Actual | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leg A weak (≤ 2.52): 30Y ≥ 5.445%, 10Y > 5.117% | if triggered | cover 2.73 | Not triggered |
| Leg A strong (≥ 2.76): 30Y ≤ 5.405%, 10Y < 5.117% | if triggered | cover 2.73 | Not triggered |
| Leg A neither (2.53 to 2.75) | no call | cover 2.73; 30Y 5.439%, 10Y 5.146% | No call |
| Leg B oil down (Brent ≤ 105.85): T5YIE ≤ 2.37 | if triggered | Brent 109.73 | Not triggered |
| Leg B oil up (Brent ≥ 112.39): T5YIE ≥ 2.41, gold > 4,142.5 | if triggered | Brent 109.73 | Not triggered |
| Leg B neither | no call | Brent +0.56%; T5YIE 2.40; gold 4,159.5 | No call |
Grade: nothing triggered. No hits, no misses, nothing void. Both legs were built so that most outcomes would be no call, and that is what happened. Two near-misses worth recording without scoring them: the cover was 0.03 short of the strong threshold, and had it reached 2.76, the 30-year's 1.4 basis point rise would have graded a miss. Brent's session high of 111.31 (Yahoo BZ=F 30-minute bars) stayed below the 112.39 oil-up line. T5YIE for Wednesday is 2.40 (FRED T5YIE), between the two Leg B thresholds.
Event-window record, as the plan specified (not graded): the 30-year moved from 5.413 to 5.410 percent and the 10-year from 5.109 to 5.106 between 12:50 and 1:20 PM ET (Yahoo ^TYX and ^TNX 30-minute bars, which sit on :20 and :50). The auction moved nothing we could measure. Brent rose from 108.51 to 109.33 between 10:30 and 11:00 AM ET around the EIA report, then gave it back in the next half hour (Yahoo BZ=F).
The 10-year rose on breakevens, not real yields
The 10-year breakeven rose 2 basis points to 2.37 and the 5-year breakeven 1 basis point to 2.40 (FRED T10YIE, T5YIE). FRED had not posted Wednesday's 10-year TIPS yield (DFII10) at writing, but Treasury's own real yield curve, which FRED's series are drawn from, shows the 10-year at 2.76 percent, down from 2.77. On Treasury's curve the 10-year nominal yield rose 1 basis point, so the whole move, and a little more, was inflation compensation. That is the reverse of Monday, when all of the rise was in real yields.
The curve flattened again from the long end: the 5-year rose 3.7 basis points and the 30-year 1.4, so the 5s30s spread narrowed from 49.0 to 46.7 basis points (Yahoo ^FVX, ^TYX).
The last 90 minutes
Most of the day's yield rise came after 2:30 PM ET. On Yahoo's 30-minute bars, from 2:30 to 3:00 PM Brent rose from 108.81 to 110.08, gold fell from 4,158.4 to 4,131.3 (and to 4,122.3 in the next half hour), DXY rose from 101.672 to 101.780 and the S&P 500 fell from 7,768.76 to 7,746.63. The 30-year was 5.409 percent on the 2:20 PM bar open and 5.439 at the close. Investrade wrote that the averages "did pull back in the final hour of trading, paring gains as oil stocks jumped and yields edged higher," and reported Brent settling at $108.82, up 3 cents, and WTI at $97.15, down 67 cents. We found no verified headline for the 2:30 PM move. Most of it then reversed: gold was back to 4,159.5 and DXY to 101.693 on the 4:00 PM bars.
Oil and gas
- Oil. Brent ranged from 107.69 to 111.31 on BZ=F's session. The morning strength was reported by Business Recorder (Reuters copy) as a $2.06 gain to $110.85 by 10:48 GMT after Iran signalled little prospect of diplomatic progress with the US. We have not verified the underlying statements. The EIA's larger-than-expected crude draw did not hold a bid for more than 30 minutes.
- Natural gas. NG=F finished the 4:00 PM bar at 2.775, down 7.3 percent from Tuesday's bar and 14.2 percent below the 3.236 close on Thursday October 15; the session low was 2.766 (Yahoo NG=F). Pipeline & Gas Journal, earlier in the session, reported November futures down 4.3 percent at $2.84 and at their lowest since September 22, citing mild forecasts through early November: LSEG projected Lower 48 demand, including exports, of 106 billion cubic feet a day this week and 108 next week, against a five-year average of 117. Output was 111.5 Bcf/d so far in October. That is a named source for the driver; we did not check the weather models ourselves, and we did not verify the official settlement price. Thursday's storage report (10:30 AM ET, EIA) belongs to the Thursday note.
What did not change
- The 10-year breakeven below 2.38. 2.37, one basis point under the limit in the October 15 conditional statement (wrong at 2.38 or higher through Friday October 23). Not falsified, but closer than at any point since it was published.
- The 10-year real yield below 2.84. Treasury's real curve shows 2.76 for Wednesday; the condition in Monday's note (DFII10 at or above 2.84 on any day through October 23) was not met. FRED's figure is pending.
- The S&P 500 condition. Monday's note also named a 1.0 percent S&P down day with the 10-year falling no more than 1 basis point. Wednesday the S&P rose 0.58 percent. Not triggered.
- Brent above $100. Every session since October 9, Wednesday's 107.69 low included (Yahoo BZ=F).
What we do not know
- What moved markets at 2:30 PM. Oil up, gold down, dollar and yields up, all in one half hour, then mostly reversed. No verified cause.
- The 20-year tail. Without a checkable when-issued yield, we can say the cover was the second highest of the last seven 20-year auctions and the indirect share the second lowest, not whether the bond priced cheap to the market.
What would change the read
Thursday's plan (editorial/plans/2026-10-22.md) was committed Thursday at about 11:45 AM ET, after the 8:30 AM jobless claims and the 10:30 AM gas storage report, and it says so; neither is graded. It grades one thing: the $26 billion 5-year TIPS new issue at 1:00 PM ET on Thursday October 22 (TreasuryDirect; the Tuesday plan wrongly called it a reopening). If the bid-to-cover is 2.27 or lower, then the 5-year yield closes above its writing-time level of 4.834 percent; if 2.63 or higher, below it; either call is invalidated if the 5-year closes on the other side. Between 2.28 and 2.62, the range of the last six 5-year TIPS auctions, there is no call. The 10-year breakeven condition expires Friday October 23; a print of 2.38 or higher before then falsifies it.
What to read alongside
Nothing on this site is investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Most retail traders lose money. Conditional statements published here are falsifiable hypotheses, graded in public, not signals.