Mon-Tue: oil and the dollar rose on Columbus Day, then bonds reopened and rallied.

Written Tuesday October 13 after the close, covering Monday October 12 and Tuesday October 13. No plan was registered for these sessions. Monday was Columbus Day: stocks and currencies traded, the cash Treasury market did not. In that gap Brent rose 1.8 percent to $106.65 on attacks in Saudi Arabia and DXY climbed 0.37 to 102.58. On Tuesday the bond market reopened, the 10-year fell 2.7 basis points from Friday to 5.217 percent and the 30-year 3.7 basis points to 5.563 percent, and the dollar gave back all of Monday's gain. Two days, one holiday, and very little net change outside of oil.

This continues the Thursday-Friday note, where a pre-registered plan had nothing to grade and yields fell without a data reason. The thread's open question is still the same: the 10-year has been moving on real yields, not inflation compensation, while oil keeps climbing.

Monday: a half-open market

Columbus Day is a federal holiday. The Federal Reserve's calendar lists it and notes that the daily and weekly statistical releases scheduled for Monday would be released on Tuesday October 13 (source: Federal Reserve calendar). SIFMA recommends a full close of the US bond market on Columbus Day while stock exchanges stay open (as summarised by TradingHours' SIFMA holiday schedule; we did not read SIFMA's own page). Treasury held its regular Monday 13- and 26-week bill auctions on Tuesday instead (source: Treasury Fiscal Data, auction date 2026-10-13). Yahoo's ^TNX and ^TYX show a single flat print for Monday, not a trading session. The reference piece published with this note explains what that means for anyone reading a yield chart.

What did trade:

• Oil. Brent settled up $1.93, or 1.8 percent, at $106.65, and WTI up $1.89 at $93.74. Reuters attributed the rise to a Houthi missile attack on Riyadh's airport on Saturday October 10, further attacks on Sunday and reports of strikes on tankers near Sohar and in the Strait of Hormuz, partly offset by the announcement of Russian diesel exports (source: Reuters via Yahoo Finance, October 12). For how supply-route risk feeds into the price, see our guide to oil markets.
• The dollar. DXY closed at 102.58, up 0.37 from Friday's 102.21; EUR/USD was 1.1160 and USD/JPY 158.58 at 4:00 PM ET (Yahoo).
• Gold was about 4,196 at 4:00 PM ET, down about $20 from Friday (Yahoo GC=F hourly).
• Stocks. The S&P 500 closed at 7,807.24, down 0.06 percent (Yahoo ^GSPC).

Tuesday: bonds reopen

• NFIB Small Business Optimism, September: 97.9, down 0.8 from August's 98.7 and a tenth of a point below the 52-year average of 98.0; the Uncertainty Index rose a point to 90 (sources: NFIB, ABA Banking Journal). Low market weight.
• Fed. Governor Waller appeared at 3:45 AM ET in a discussion on artificial intelligence at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in New Delhi (Federal Reserve calendar). We did not review what he said and attribute no market move to it.
• Treasuries. Bloomberg reported the 10-year yield fell as much as 5 basis points to about 5.19 percent as cash trading resumed, on haven demand as Asian equities fell (source: Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance). Yahoo's ^TNX opened New York at 5.187 percent and drifted up to close at 5.217: the rally happened overnight and New York trimmed it.
• Oil. Brent settled down 96 cents at $105.69 while WTI rose 40 cents to $94.14; Reuters described prices pulled between the diesel deal and the Gulf attacks (source: Reuters, October 13).

The tape

Market	Fri Oct 9	Mon Oct 12	Tue Oct 13	Fri to Tue
10Y yield	5.244%	closed	5.217%	-2.7 bp
30Y yield	5.600%	closed	5.563%	-3.7 bp
5Y yield	5.021%	closed	5.007%	-1.4 bp
DXY	102.21	102.58	102.20 (4 PM)	-0.01
Gold (GC=F, 4 PM ET)	~4,216	~4,196	~4,184	~-32
USD/JPY (4 PM ET)	158.25	158.58	158.32	+0.07
EUR/USD (4 PM ET)	1.1206	1.1160	1.1201	-0.0005
Brent (settle)	104.72	106.65	105.69	+0.97
S&P 500	7,811.54	7,807.24	7,805.45	-0.08%

Sources: Yahoo Finance query1 daily closes for ^TNX, ^TYX, ^FVX, DX-Y.NYB (Friday, Monday) and ^GSPC; Yahoo hourly 4:00 PM ET bar for Tuesday's DXY (the daily bar was not final at writing), and for GC=F, USDJPY=X and EURUSD=X; Brent settlements per Reuters as linked above, which match Yahoo BZ=F daily bars for Friday and Monday.

What the two days add up to

The dollar's holiday move did not survive the bond market's return. DXY rose 0.37 on Monday with no cash Treasury market open, and fell back to within a hundredth of Friday's close by Tuesday's 4:00 PM. One episode is not a rule, but it is the pattern the reference piece describes: a currency move on a bond holiday trades without its usual anchor, and the first session with cash yields gets a vote.

Oil and yields keep moving in opposite directions. From Wednesday October 7 to Tuesday, Brent settled up from $100.20 to $105.69, about 5.5 percent, while the 10-year fell from 5.277 to 5.217 percent. On the official curve through Friday, the 10-year breakeven went from 2.36 to 2.33 (FRED T10YIE). The bond market has not treated this oil rally as an inflation shock. It has looked more like a risk-off input, which is the regime the guide to supply-shock versus growth-shock bond rallies describes. Treasury's official October 13 yields were not on FRED at writing, so Tuesday's breakeven is not yet known.

What did not change. The Fed's message. Waller and Musalem both said further increases are likely needed, with the October 27-28 meeting left open. Nothing on Monday or Tuesday contradicted that, and nothing tested it.

What we do not know

• Who traded the dollar on Monday. Thin holiday trading, oil-driven safe-haven demand or something else: we cannot separate them with the data we have.
• Whether Tuesday's bond rally was about oil, stocks or position-squaring after a three-day weekend. Bloomberg pointed to haven demand on falling Asian equities; the S&P 500 itself ended Tuesday almost unchanged.
• Current Fed pricing. We did not capture a reading directly from CME and report none.

What would change the read

September CPI is due Wednesday October 14 at 8:30 AM ET, with the Beige Book at 2:00 PM ET (sources: BLS schedule, Federal Reserve calendar). PPI and advance retail sales follow on Thursday October 15 at 8:30 AM ET (BLS, Census), and EIA's weekly petroleum report is delayed by the holiday to Thursday at 12:00 PM ET (source: EIA schedule). A conditional map for CPI day was committed to the repository on Tuesday evening, before the data, and will be graded at the Wednesday close. No unconditional call here; two conditional statements:

• If September core CPI prints 0.3 percent or more month on month (the WSJ survey median compiled by investingLive is 0.22 percent) and the 10-year closes Wednesday at or above Thursday October 8's 5.231 percent, then the holiday-week rally in bonds was positioning, not a change in the inflation view. Wrong if a 0.3 percent or higher core print leaves the 10-year below 5.231 at the close.
• If the dollar's next move of 0.3 or more in DXY comes with cash Treasury yields moving the same way on the day, then Monday's holiday move was the exception, not a new pattern of the dollar trading apart from rates. Wrong if DXY moves 0.3 or more on a full trading day while the 10-year moves less than 1 basis point or in the opposite direction.

What to read alongside

• Bond market holidays: what changes when stocks trade and Treasuries don't (today's reference piece)
• Oil markets
• CPI components
• Breakevens

Nothing on this site is investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Most retail traders lose money. Conditional statements published here are falsifiable hypotheses, graded in public, not signals.