Tue: confidence jumped to 91.7, the plan scored one thin hit, and the 5-year auction's 2.33 cover triggered nothing.
Written Friday October 30 at about 5:50 AM ET, covering Tuesday October 27; the plan was committed Monday evening before any Tuesday release. The Conference Board index rose to 91.7 (September revised to 84.2 from 81.9), above the 88.9 line: the 10-year closed at 4.993 percent, above 4.986, a hit by 0.7 basis point. The 5-year drew 2.33 cover (TreasuryDirect), inside the no-call band. One of the Monday note's two statements was wrong; the other was never tested.
Written Friday October 30, 2026, at about 5:50 AM ET, covering Tuesday October 27. This note is late: it was meant to run after Tuesday's close and did not. The plan graded below (editorial/plans/2026-10-27.md) was committed Monday October 26 at about 9:10 PM ET, before any Tuesday release. Every Tuesday number here comes from Tuesday's session; nothing from Wednesday or Thursday is used to grade Tuesday. Committed before Friday's 8:30 AM ET data. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index jumped 7.5 points to 91.7 in October, and the 10-year yield closed 0.7 basis point higher at 4.993 percent. That is a hit for the plan's first leg, and a thin one. The 5-year auction drew a bid-to-cover of 2.33, inside the band where the plan made no call.
This continues the Monday note, where the 2-year auction drew the year's lowest indirect share and the 10-year sat flat at 4.986 percent going into the Fed's two-day meeting.
What the data said
- Conference Board Consumer Confidence, October (10:00 AM ET). The index "rose 7.5 points to 91.7 (1985=100)," up from a revised 84.2 in September; the first print for September was 81.9. Present Situation 120.4, up 8.6; Expectations 72.6, up 6.9 (source: Conference Board). TheStreet called it the highest since June and quoted a consensus near 81; secondary reports put 12-month inflation expectations at 5.8 percent. We did not read those last two figures from the Conference Board. How to read swings like this is in consumer-confidence inflection signals.
- 5-year note auction (1:00 PM ET). $70 billion (CUSIP 91282CRT0, 4.750 percent coupon, matures October 31, 2031) at a high yield of 4.845 percent, bid-to-cover 2.33, low yield 4.730. Of $69.26 billion in competitive awards, indirect bidders took $41.59 billion (60.0 percent), direct bidders $20.36 billion (29.4 percent) and primary dealers $7.31 billion (10.6 percent); 98.60 percent of bids at the high yield were filled (source: TreasuryDirect auction record). Method in Treasury auction demand.
- Durable goods and new home sales (Census, 8:30 and 10:00 AM ET). Recorded, not graded, per the plan; we did not read either release for this note.
The tape
| Market | Mon Oct 26 | Tue Oct 27 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y yield (close) | 4.824% | 4.840% | +1.6 bp |
| 10Y yield (close) | 4.986% | 4.993% | +0.7 bp |
| 30Y yield (close) | 5.301% | 5.305% | +0.4 bp |
| DXY (4 PM ET) | 101.999 | 102.298 | +0.29% |
| Gold (GC=F, 4 PM ET) | 4,027.0 | 4,074.9 | +47.9 (+1.19%) |
| USD/JPY (4 PM ET) | 157.52 | 157.91 | +0.25% |
| EUR/USD (4 PM ET) | 1.1181 | 1.1140 | -0.37% |
| Brent, December (BZZ26, 4 PM ET) | 115.56 | 114.29 | -1.10% |
| Brent, January (BZF27, 4 PM ET) | 110.50 | 109.85 | -0.59% |
| S&P 500 (close) | 7,676.77 | 7,722.60 | +0.60% |
Sources: Yahoo Finance query1 (v8/finance/chart). Yields and the S&P 500 are daily closes (^FVX, ^TNX, ^TYX, ^GSPC); the rest are 4:00 PM ET prints, the close of the 3:30 PM 30-minute bar, the same convention as the Monday table. On Treasury's own closing curve the 2-year rose 2 basis points to 4.70 percent, the 5-year fell 2 to 4.82 and the 10-year fell 1 to 4.99 (Treasury nominal curve). Treasury's curve and Yahoo's ^TNX are struck at different times; the plan grades on ^TNX, and on Treasury's curve the 10-year was lower on the day. We say that plainly because it means the hit depends on the series the plan named.
Grading the plan
Leg A, consumer confidence vs September's 81.9. At 74.9 or lower, the 10-year closes below Monday's 4.986 percent; at 88.9 or higher, above it; in between, no call. Classification: 91.7, strong. The September revision to 84.2 does not change it: the thresholds were fixed numbers, and 91.7 is 7.5 points above the revised figure too, still past the 7.0-point width the plan used.
Leg B, 5-year bid-to-cover vs the six-auction range 2.21 to 2.37. At 2.20 or lower, the 5-year closes above 4.824 percent; at 2.38 or higher, below it. Classification: 2.33, neither.
| Line in the map | Expected | Actual | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| A, Weak (≤ 74.9): ^TNX below 4.986% | if triggered | index 91.7 | Not triggered |
| A, Strong (≥ 88.9): ^TNX above 4.986% | above 4.986% | 4.993% | Hit (+0.7 bp) |
| B, Weak (≤ 2.20): ^FVX above 4.824% | if triggered | cover 2.33 | Not triggered |
| B, Strong (≥ 2.38): ^FVX below 4.824% | if triggered | cover 2.33 | Not triggered |
| B, Neither (2.21 to 2.37) | no call | 2.33; ^FVX 4.840% | No call |
Grade: one hit, no misses, nothing void. The conflict rule did not apply, since only one leg triggered. The hit is real by the plan's own terms and small enough to be noise: 0.7 basis point on the series the plan named, and a fall on Treasury's curve. We count it and do not lean on it.
Event-window record, as the plan specified (not graded): ^TNX opened the 9:50 AM bar at 4.999 percent and the 10:20 AM bar at 5.003, up 0.4 basis point across the confidence release; ^FVX went from 4.840 at the 12:50 PM bar open to 4.839 at the 1:20 PM bar close, flat across the auction (Yahoo 30-minute bars). Neither release moved the market much in its window. Why we record but do not grade these is in event windows.
The Monday note's two statements
- The 5-year indirect share below 54.3 percent: wrong. The Monday note said the weak foreign share at the 2-year would show up again at the 5-year, and was wrong if indirect bidders took 54.3 percent or more. They took 60.0 percent. Wrong.
- December Brent above $117.12, then T10YIE at or above 2.34: not tested. December Brent was $114.29 at 4:00 PM ET, so the condition never held. For the record, FRED's T10YIE printed 2.35 for Tuesday (via our proxy).
What did not happen
The Tuesday plan said a pre-registered map for Wednesday's FOMC decision would come in Tuesday evening's plan. It did not. No plan was committed for Wednesday October 28 or Thursday October 29, so both sessions are written up without a grade: Wednesday's note and Thursday's note. The record since mid-October: Oct 14 two hits, two misses; Oct 16 no hits, two misses; Oct 21, 22 and 23 nothing triggered; Oct 27 one hit.
What we do not know
- Why the dollar and gold rose together. DXY gained 0.29 percent and gold 1.19 percent on the same day; we did not find a sourced explanation and offer none.
- Whether the confidence jump moved bonds at all. The event window says barely.
What to read alongside
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