Fri: the employment cost index rose 0.8 percent, inside the no-call band, and the 5-year fell 8 basis points, almost all of it before the release.
Written Monday November 2, 2026, at about 9:15 PM ET, covering Friday October 30, graded against the Oct 30 plan. Q3 civilian compensation rose 0.8 percent (BLS), between the 0.6 and 1.2 percent lines, so the plan made no call. The 5-year closed at 4.721 percent (Thursday 4.801) and the 10-year at 4.929 (Thursday 4.989), but the 5-year was already at 4.716 at the 8:20 AM bar open (Yahoo). Chicago PMI, the BoJ decision and CFTC were recorded, not graded.
Written Monday November 2, 2026, at about 9:15 PM ET, covering Friday October 30. This note is late: it was meant to run after Friday's close and did not. The plan graded below (editorial/plans/2026-10-30.md) was committed Thursday October 29 at about 9:25 PM ET, before any Friday US release. Every Friday number here comes from Friday's session; Monday's data is not used to grade Friday. The employment cost index rose 0.8 percent in the third quarter, a tenth below the second quarter's 0.9. That sits inside the band where the plan made no call, so Friday grades as nothing triggered. Yields did fall: the 5-year by 8.0 basis points to 4.721 percent and the 10-year by 6.0 to 4.929. Almost all of that happened before the 8:30 AM release, not because of it.
This continues Thursday's note, where GDP grew 3.4 percent, core PCE rose 0.3 percent on the month and the 5-year fell 7 basis points to 4.801 percent, the level this plan graded against.
What the data said
- Employment Cost Index, September 2026 (Q3), 8:30 AM ET. "Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.8 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period." Wages and salaries rose 0.7 percent and benefit costs 0.9 percent from June 2026. Over 12 months (not seasonally adjusted), compensation rose 3.4 percent, wages and salaries 3.1 and benefits 3.9 (source: BLS ECI release). FRED's ECIALLCIV index gives the same quarter-on-quarter change, 0.79 percent unrounded, with Q2 at 0.89 (via our FRED proxy).
- MNI Chicago Business Barometer (Chicago PMI), October, 9:45 AM ET. Recorded, not graded, per the plan. We did not read the release for this note and quote no number.
- Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting, October 29-30. Recorded, not graded. Pre-meeting press reports (Nikkei, as summarised in search results) said the policy rate would be held at 1.25 percent; we did not read the Bank of Japan's own statement and do not state the outcome as fact.
- CFTC Commitments of Traders, 3:30 PM ET (positions as of Tuesday October 27). Recorded, not graded. Not read for this note. How to read it is in COT positioning.
The tape
| Market | Thu Oct 29 | Fri Oct 30 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y yield (close) | 4.801% | 4.721% | -8.0 bp |
| 10Y yield (close) | 4.989% | 4.929% | -6.0 bp |
| 30Y yield (close) | 5.329% | 5.309% | -2.0 bp |
| DXY (4 PM ET) | 102.036 | 101.894 | -0.14% |
| Gold (GC=F, 4 PM ET) | 4,034.3 | 3,892.8 | -141.5 (-3.51%) |
| USD/JPY (4 PM ET) | 157.96 | 157.52 | -0.28% |
| EUR/USD (4 PM ET) | 1.1166 | 1.1171 | +0.04% |
| Brent, January (BZF27, 4 PM ET) | 111.56 | 112.55 | +0.89% |
| S&P 500 (close) | 7,720.39 | 7,580.07 | -1.82% |
Sources: Yahoo Finance query1 (v8/finance/chart). Yields and the S&P 500 are daily closes (^FVX, ^TNX, ^TYX, ^GSPC); the rest are 4:00 PM ET prints, the close of the 3:30 PM 30-minute bar, the same convention as earlier tables. December Brent expired Friday, so January is the contract shown. On Treasury's closing curve the 2-year fell 5 basis points to 4.56 percent, the 5-year 7 to 4.71 and the 10-year 4 to 4.94 (Treasury nominal curve). Both series agree on direction.
Grading the plan
Leg A, ECI civilian compensation, Q3 3-month change vs Q2's 0.9 percent. At 0.6 percent or lower, the 5- and 10-year close below Thursday's 4.801 and 4.989 percent; at 1.2 percent or higher, above them; 0.7 to 1.1, no call. Classification: 0.8 percent, neither.
| Line in the map | Expected | Actual | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Soft (≤ 0.6%): ^FVX below 4.801%, ^TNX below 4.989% | if triggered | ECI 0.8% | Not triggered |
| Hot (≥ 1.2%): ^FVX above 4.801%, ^TNX above 4.989% | if triggered | ECI 0.8% | Not triggered |
| Neither (0.7% to 1.1%) | no call | 0.8%; ^FVX 4.721%, ^TNX 4.929% | No call |
Grade: nothing triggered. No hits, no misses, nothing void. The thresholds were set 0.3 point either side of Q2 so that most outcomes would be no call, and this was one of them. The yields fell a long way on the day, but the plan does not get credit for a move it did not call, and we do not count it.
Event-window record, as the plan specified (not graded): ^FVX opened the 8:20 AM bar at 4.716 percent and the 8:50 AM bar at 4.750, up 3.4 basis points across the release; ^TNX went from 4.921 to 4.949, up 2.8 (Yahoo 30-minute bars). So the 5-year was already 8.5 basis points below Thursday's close before the ECI came out, rose on a release that was a tenth softer than Q2, and then drifted back to finish at 4.721, near where it had opened. The plan's own text warned that Thursday-night moves would be carried in the grade; that is exactly what happened. Why we keep these windows separate from the grade is in event windows.
What we do not know
- Why yields fell before Friday's open. The plan noted that the dollar, gold and equity futures moved after Thursday's 4:00 PM close, cause not checked. The overnight move in Treasuries is the bigger part of Friday's change, and we have no sourced explanation for it.
- Why gold fell 3.5 percent. A fall in yields and a slightly weaker dollar would usually be read as supportive for gold. It fell anyway; we offer no reason.
- Why the yields rose in the release window. A 0.8 print against 0.9 the quarter before is not obviously hot. We did not read a consensus figure from a named source, so we cannot say whether it surprised.
What came next
No plan was committed for Monday November 2, so Monday's note is ungraded. A plan for Tuesday November 3 (editorial/plans/2026-11-03.md) was committed Monday evening, before Tuesday's 10:00 AM ET JOLTS release. The record since mid-October: Oct 14 two hits, two misses; Oct 16 no hits, two misses; Oct 21, 22 and 23 nothing triggered; Oct 27 one hit; Oct 30 nothing triggered. No plans for Oct 28, Oct 29 or Nov 2.
What to read alongside
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